Fixed Income Daily Market Update

CMBI Credit Commentary Fixed Income Daily Market Update固定收益部市场日报 Asian IG space was unchanged to 2bps tighter this morning. We saw smallbetter buying flows on AT1s and LGFVs. LASUDE 26 gained 1.7pts.SHUION 26 was 0.6pt higher. DALWAN 28/GLPSP 28/GLPCHI 29 were0.4pt lower. Glenn Ko, CFA高志和(852) 3657 6235glennko@cmbi.com.hk GRNCH:FY25 earnings drop cushioned by robust funding access. Maintainbuy on GRNCH 8.45 02/24/28, which was 0.4pt higher yesterday andunchanged this morning. See below. Cyrena Ng, CPA吳蒨瑩(852) 3900 0801cyrenang@cmbi.com.hk China Economy:Exports remainedresilient. CMBI expects China’s goodsexports to moderate from 5.2% in 2025 to 4% in 2026 while imports mayrebound from-0.5% to 2%. USD/RMB rates may appreciate from the current6.87 to 6.8 by Jun’26, and then depreciate to 6.9 by year end. See commentsfrom CMBI economic research below. Yujing Zhang张钰婧(852)3900 0830zhangyujing@cmbi.com.hk Trading desk comments交易台市场观点  Yesterday,in JP, SOFTBKs led the space and rose up to 2.6pts. RESLIF6.875 Perp/NOMURA 7 Perp edged 0.4-0.6pt higher. Rest of Japanese andYankee AT1s and insurance subs also largely recouped the previous losses.We saw RMs and prop desks reloading risks, whilst dealers took profits offpositions that were hit at the lows. In HK, NWDEVLs increased by 0.1-1.5pts,and VDNWDLs were 0.1-0.2pt higher. FAEACO 12.814 Perp rose 1.2pts.LASUDE 26 was 0.7pt higher, and MTRC Perps gained 0.2-0.4pt. The Macaugaming complex recovered 0.1-0.7pt. As for the rest of greater China, higher-yielding papers, FOSUNI 26-29 were unchanged to 0.5pt higher. EHICAR 26leaked 0.8pt, while EHICAR 27 gained 0.3pt. Media reported that eHi CarServices is soliciting investor feedback for a proposed exchange offer on itsoutstanding USD267mn EHICAR 7 09/21/2026. eHi is offering 10% upfront,with the remainder exchanged into a new 3.5yr amortizing bond. WESCHI28-29 recovered 0.6pt. In Chinese properties, GRNCH 28was 0.4pt higher.Greentown expects FY25 profit to drop c95% yoy. See comments below.FUTLAN 28/FTLNHD 26-29 were 0.1pt lower to 0.1pt higher. See commentson9 Mar’26. LNGFOR 27-32 edged 0.1-0.7pt higher despite the profitwarning, while VNKRLE 27’ and 29’ were down by 0.3-0.5pt. In SE Asianspace, VEDLN 28-33swere increased by 0.3-2.2pts. The ReNew Energycomplex and IHFLIN 27-30 were 0.1-0.6pt higher. PTTGC Perps/TOPTB 6.1Perpbounced 0.7-1.3pts higher.GLPSPs recovered 0.9-1.1pts.Mediareported that GLP is planning Hong Kong IPO to raise at least USD1bn.MEDCIJ26-30/SMCGL Perps gained 0.1-0.8pt.In the Middle East,ARAMCO30-36/SECO 29-36/BSFRs closed 0.1-0.3pt higher. In LGFV space, we saw active two-way flows across higher-yielding namesamong HFs and RMs. HFs continued to take profit on well in-the-moneypositions in order to raise cash and buy the dip elsewhere, whilst RMsremained solid buyer of risk papers. Last Trading Day’s Top Movers Marco News Recap宏观新闻回顾 Macro–S&P (-0.21%), Dow (-0.07%) and Nasdaq (+0.01%) were mixed on Tuesday. US Feb’26 Existing HomeSales was4.09mn, higher than the market expectation of 3.89mn. UST yield was higher on Tuesday. 2/5/10/30year yield was at 3.57%/3.73%/4.15%/4.78%. Desk Analyst Comments分析员市场观点 GRNCH:FY25 earnings drop cushioned by robust funding access Despite the profit warning, we take comfort from its improved debt structure, manageable debt maturity profileand smooth access to funding channels, thankspartly to its state-ownership.Hence, we maintain buy onGRNCH 8.45 02/24/28 and consider the bond a low-beta and good carry play. At 102.3, GRNCH 8.45 02/24/28is trading at YTM of 6.9%. Greentown issued a profit warning, expecting FY25 profit attributable to owners to drop by c95% yoy fromRMB1.6bn in FY24. The decline was primarily driven by lower GP margin and a decreased share of resultsfrom JVs and associate companies as management accelerated the destocking of long-term inventory,alongside assets impairment losses.Despite the earnings hit, Greentown’s debt structure improved. ST debtdecreased to less than 20% of total debt as of Dec’25 from 23% as of Dec’24, while cash-to-ST debt ratioincreased to over 2.5x from 2.3xa year prior. Greentown’s operating performance remained challenged by the weak macroeconomic backdrop. Greentown’sFY25 contracted sales fell 9% yoy to RMB252.9bn, ranking the 5thin sales growth among the 31 developersunder our radar. Only China Jinmao and Greenlandachieved positive sales growth last year. The sluggishsales momentumhas continued into 2026.Greentown’s 2M26 contracted sales declined 27% yoy toRMB18.3bn. The yoy change was weaker than that of China Jinmao (+23% yoy) and China Overseas (+21%yoy) butbetter than that ofYuexiu (-31% yoy) and Greenland (-35% yoy). That said, we take comfort from Greentown’s smooth access to funding channels and its state-ownedbackground. Greentown has actively managed its debt maturityprofile since 2024. In Feb’25,Greentownredeemed GRNCH 4.7 04/29/25 and GRNCH 5.65 07/13/25 totaling RMB452mn in principal