“反内卷”共同维护市场健康，聚酯化纤盈利有望修复

“反内卷”共同维护市场健康，聚酯化纤盈利有望修复'Anti involution' jointly maintains market health& Polyester fiber profitability is expected to be restored 最新动态 ➢25年归母净利润预计亏损2.5至3.8亿元。2025年度公司预计实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为-3.80亿万元到-2.50亿元，主要系子公司内蒙古三维亏损所致。2025年度BDO市场价格跌至历史低位，行业整体陷入亏损，内蒙古三维通过尝试推动行业限产保价、内部技改降本及工艺优化等方式力图维持盈利，但仍难挡价格持续探底带来的行业性亏损压力。公司其他业务板块整体盈利能力持续改善，轨道交通业务净利润重新回到2023年水平，其中四川三维带来的投资收益同比大幅增加；聚酯化纤业务大幅减亏，在“反内卷”行动上取得显著成效。 ➢聚酯化纤产业2026年有望实现扭亏为盈，修复盈利能力。2025年度聚酯工业长丝行业在国家政策引导、行业协会牵头和企业自律下，通过“限产保价”、“协调开工率”等方式灵活调节供应，行业呈现景气度上行的趋势，公司聚酯化纤业务大幅减亏。未来随着反内卷政策持续及供需格局改善，以及公司向高门槛、高技术含量且附加值高的车用丝领域布局，公司有信心实现扭亏为盈，修复盈利能力。 ➢电石行业正经历产能出清，2026年以来电石价格逐步回升。生意社数据显示，2026年以来电石价格逐步回升，核心运行区间在2200-2800元/吨，价格重心较2025年小幅回升5%-8%。电石生产具有高能耗、高排放的特点，国家及内蒙古自治区层面已出台多项文件，明确不再新增电石产能，确有必要的须实施产能和能耗减量置换。电石行业正经历产能出清，10万吨/年以下落后装置、老旧装置将全面退出，供应端趋紧从而支撑电石价格，进而传导至下游PVC、BDO产业链，推动相关产品价格上涨。 动向解读 ➢“化工、交通”两大领域三大主业。公司坚定立足实体经济，以现有产业为基础，围绕产业链布局，现已形成“化工、交通”两大领域三大主业的业务格局。新材料化工业务生产基地位于内蒙古乌海市，已布局30万吨/年BDO、36万吨/年电石产能，未来将向上筹备兰炭、绿电等产能，向下拓展PBAT等新材料产能，向全球规模领先的BDO及可降解塑料一体化龙头企业目标奋进。轨道交通业务重点布局“珠三角”、“长三角”以及国家“一带一路”沿线所覆盖的云南省、四川省等省份，致力于高铁建设和城市地铁等项目的开拓发展。橡胶制品产业和化纤产业生产基地均位于三门县内，主要产品有橡胶输送带、传动V带、聚酯切片及涤纶工业丝，公司是我国输送带及橡胶V带领域的龙头企业之一。 风险提示 市场风险；产品价格大幅下跌风险；原料端风险。 分析师介绍 分析师庄怀超，拥有北京航空航天大学本科学位和香港大学金融学硕士学位，主要覆盖能源化工和材料行业。 该分析师2022-2024年曾任职于海通国际研究部，团队2022年获得过亚洲货币第一名，该分析师2025年加入环球富盛理财有限公司，继续覆盖化工和新材料行业。环球富盛理财有限公司是一家香港的持牌券商机构，成立于2014年。 该分析师曾在wind发布报告超过600篇，主要覆盖标的包括： 1）化工&化肥：东岳集团、环球新材国际、中国联塑、阜丰集团、中国三江化工、浦林成山、中海石油化学、中国旭阳集团、龙蟠科技、彩客新能源、天德化工、中国心连心化肥、中化化肥、米高集团、大成生化科技； 2）能源&公用事业：中创新航、中集安瑞科、新奥能源、长江基建集团、中国能源建设、中煤能源、宏华集团、中海油田服务、安东油田服务、惠生工程、协合新能源、北京能源国际、绿色动力环保、中国光大绿色环保、首钢资源、新特能源、中裕能源、北京燃气蓝天； 3）有色&材料：中国宏桥、紫金黄金国际、万国黄金集团、潼关黄金、中国罕王、中广核矿业、稀美资源、首佳科技、信义光能、华新水泥、华润建材科技、大明国际。 微信：zhuangcharles邮箱：charles.zhuang@gpf.com.hk电话：(852)97487114; (86) 188 01353 3537 The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng IndexTime Horizon: 6 to 18 months SECTOR RATING DEFINITIONThe Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months DISCLOSURE OF INTERESTS (1) The Analysts and their associates do not serve as an officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (2) The Analysts and their associates do not have any financial interests in relation to the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (3) Global Prosperity Financial Company Limited and/or its subsidiaries do not hold equal to or more than 1% of the market capitalization ofthe issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (4)Global Prosperity Financial Company Limitedand/or its subsidiaries have not had investment banking relationships with the issuermentioned in this Research Report within the preceding 12 months. (5) Global Prosperity Financial Company Limitedand/or its subsidiaries are not making a market in the securities in respect of the issuermentioned in this Research Report. (6) Global Prosperity Financial Company Limitedand/or its subsidiaries have not employed an individual serving as an officerof the issuermentioned in this Research Report. There is no officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report associated withGlobal ProsperityFinancial Company Limitedand/or its subsidiaries. DISCLAIMER This Research Report does not constitute an invitation or offer to acquire, purchase or subscribe for securities by Global Prosperity FinancialCompany Limited. Global Prosperity Financial Company Limited and its group companies may do business that relates to companies coveredin research reports, including investment banking, investment services, etc. (for example, the placing agent, lead manager, sponsor,underwriter or invest proprietarily). Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment strategies expressed orally or in written form by salespersons, dealers and other professional executives of Global Prosperity Financial Company Limitedgroup of companies. Any opinionsexpressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment decisions made by the asset management and investment bankinggroups ofGlobal Prosperity Financial Company Limited. Though best effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information and data contained in this Research Report,Global ProsperityFinancial Company Limited does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information and data herein. This ResearchReportmay contain some forward-lookingestimates and forecasts derived from the assumptions of the future political and economic conditions withinherently unpredictable and mutable situation, so uncertainty may contain. Investors should understand and comprehend the investmentobjectives and its related risks, and where necessary consult their own financial advisers prior to any investment decision. This Research Report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen orresident of or locatedin any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which wouldsubjectGlobal Prosperity Financial Company L