中国人口老龄化与养老金改革（英）2026

Population Aging and Boele Bonthuis,Yongquan Cao, and ChristophFreudenberg WP/26/27 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are 2026FEB IMF Working Paper AsiaandPacific Department Population Aging and Pension Reforms in China Prepared byBoele Bonthuis, Yongquan Cao, and Christoph Freudenberg*Authorized for distribution by Sonali Jain-Chandra IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the ABSTRACT:China is experiencing rapid population aging and a declining workforce, posing significanteconomic and fiscal challenges, especially to the pension system.This paper examines the evolution of China’spension system, assesses its gaps relative to international peers, and evaluates the macro-fiscal implications ofpopulation aging and various pension reforms. Using a calibrated overlapping generations model that explicitlyincorporates the rural–urban disparities, we project that population aging alone can slow annual GDP growth byabout 2 percentage points between 2024 and 2050, while pension spending can rise by nearly 10 percentage RECOMMENDED CITATION:Bonthuis, Boele, Yongquan Cao, and Christoph Freudenberg.“Population Agingand Pension Reforms in China”,IMF Working Papers2026 WORKING PAPERS Population Aging and Pension Prepared byBoele Bonthuis, Yongquan Cao, and Christoph Freudenberg Contents I.Introduction..................................................................................................................................................6 A.Evolution of China’s Public Pension System (1949–2024)...............................................................10B.The Three-Pillar Pension Architecture..............................................................................................11C.InternationalComparison..................................................................................................................14 III.Quantitative Evaluation of Aging Population and Pension Reforms.............................................20 A.The model.........................................................................................................................................20 1.Population Structure.....................................................................................................................202.Household....................................................................................................................................203.Firm..............................................................................................................................................214.Government..................................................................................................................................21 B.Calibration.........................................................................................................................................22 1.Demographics:.............................................................................................................................222.Parameters Based on Macro Data:..............................................................................................223.Parameters Based on Fiscal Data:...............................................................................................234.Parameters Based on Micro Data:...............................................................................................23 C.Simulation Results............................................................................................................................24 1.Macroeconomic and Fiscal Impacts ofPopulation Aging.............................................................252.Assessment of the 2024 Retirement Age Reform........................................................................263.Additional Reform Scenarios:.......................................................................................................27 Conclusion...........................................................................................................................................31 References.........................................................................................................................................................32 Figure 1 Demographic Challenges in China.....................................................................................................7Figure 2 Provincial Demographics Affect Pension Finances.......................................................................11Figure 3 BenefitLevelsRelative to GDP perCapita......................................................................................14Figure 4 Pension Coverage over Time..................................