拉丁美洲和加勒比人口老龄化的经济影响：挑战和机遇（英）2025

SERIES 140POPULATION ANDDEVELOPMENT Economic impactsof population ageingin Latin Americaand the Caribbean Challenges and opportunities Simone CecchiniPablo ComelattoRaúl HolzSeongji KangYaël Paes Thank you for your interest inthis ECLAC publication Please register if you would like to receive information on our editorialproducts and activities. When you register, you may specify your particularareas of interest and you will gain access to our products in other formats. Click on the link below for our social networks andother channels for accessing our publications: https://bit.ly/m/CEPAL Economic impactsof population ageingin Latin Americaand the Caribbean Challenges and opportunities Simone CecchiniPablo ComelattoRaúl HolzSeongji KangYaël Paes Thisdocument was prepared by Simone Cecchini,Chief of the Latin American and CaribbeanDemographic Centre (CELADE)-Population Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America andtheCaribbean(ECLAC), along with Pablo Comelatto, consultant, Raúl Holz, Senior Research Assistant,Seongji Kang, Consultant, and Yaël Paes consultant, all with the same Division, in the framework of thecooperation agreement between the Republic of Korea and ECLAC.The authors thankCarlos Kroll, consultantwith CELADE-Population Division of ECLAC, for his contributions to the document. The United Nations and the countries it represents assume no responsibility for the content of links toexternal sites in this publication. Mention of any firm names and commercial products or services does not imply endorsement by theUnitedNations or the countries it represents. The views expressed in this document, an unofficial translation of a Spanish original which did no undergoformal editing, are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Organization or thecountries it represents. United Nations PublicationISSN: 1680-9009 (electronic version)ISSN: 1680-8991 (print version)LC/TS.2025/50Distribution: LCopyright © United Nations, 2025All rights reservedPrinted at United Nations, SantiagoS.2500473[E] This publication should be cited as: Cecchini, S., Comelatto, P., Holz, R., Kang, S. and Paes, Y. (2025). Economic impacts of populationageing in Latin America and the Caribbean: challenges and opportunities.Population and Development Series(140) (LC/TS.2025/50).Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean. Applications for authorization to reproduce this work in whole or in part should be sent to the Economic Commission for Latin Americaand the Caribbean (ECLAC), Documents and Publications Division, publicaciones.cepal@un.org. Member States and their governmentalinstitutions may reproduce this work without prior authorization, but are requested to mention the source and to inform ECLAC ofsuchreproduction. Contents Summary............................................................................................................................................ 7Introduction....................................................................................................................................... 9 A.Poverty and vulnerability among older persons...................................................................... 15B.Population aging and the labour force.....................................................................................17C.Longer healthy life expectancy............................................................................................... 20D.Household consumption expenditure profile with and without older persons......................... 211.Characteristics of urban households with and without older persons.............................. 222.Household expenditure in urban areas with and without older persons........................... 24 II.Demographic dividend and the economic impacts of ageing............................................... 29The demographic dividend and the demographic dependency ratio....................................... 30 A.B.The support ratio.................................................................................................................... 33C.Characterization of consumption and income patterns throughout the life cycle.................... 34D.The second demographic dividend......................................................................................... 40E.Estimating the impact of aging on GDP per capita.................................................................. 42F.Aging as a driver of economic sectors..................................................................................... 451.The health sector and the care economy........................................................................ 452.Financial and insurance sector........................................................................................ 463.Pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry................................................................... 464.Technology and digital s