黄金市场评论：债券不可行

The 5k club Highlights A staggering14% rally in January took gold above the US$5,000 mark,cementing the 5k number as a headline to match thefirst recorded annual5,000tonnesof total demand. The monthclosed atUS$4,982/ozand scored12 Januaryreview Gold’s impressive rally took itabove the US$5,000 mark. OurGold Return Attribution Model(GRAM)showed an unusually largecontribution from implied volatility(c.50% ofJanuary’s return), reflectingsubstantial option market activity. This variablecurrently sits inrisk & uncertainty, Looking forward US inflationaryworriesand theprospect of rising bond volatilitycoulddominategold’s behaviour Global gold ETFflowsprovidedplentyofsupportadding120t in January to takeholdings to a new record, valued at US$669bn.Theflows were dominated byAsia(62t)and North America(43t)while Europe sawmore modest inflows(13t). Key drivers of gold’s return by month* Table1:A remarkable month for gold in all major currencies Uphill strugglefor bonds Geopolitics has dominated the narrative and driven recentvolatility, but this influence could fade, at least temporarily,shifting focus back to macro fundamentals.In the US,easiermonetary policy and the fiscal boostappeargeared towardsrunning the economy hot, reviving inflation risks.Indeed, Inflation risks The case for a resurgence in inflation rests on several •A neutral rate likely higher than the FederalOpenMarket •The lagged tariff effects, as pre-tariff inventories are •Prospective fiscal support through possible renewedAffordableCare Act (ACA)subsidiesand tariff ‘dividend •A tighter labour market with the breakeven rate lower •Looser financial conditions than headline figures suggest,given low household debt servicing ratios, a lower needby large corporations to fund themselves via debt,and a Market signals are mixedso far The decline in implied rates volatility (MOVE) likely reflects amore benign near-term inflation narrative and reduced •Rising household inflation expectations and limited spare But term premia remain high, consistent with investors stillpricing meaningful medium-term inflation and supply risks–particularly against a backdrop of persistent budget deficits Against this backdrop, we expect the bond-equity correlationto be unreliable other than if we were to see a seriousdownside market stress environment. A renewed inflationupswing would also put the incoming Fed leadership’scredibility to the test. Any hint of a more hands-off stance Chart3:Near-term, long-termdisconnect Insummary The recent run-up ingoldpricesprobablywarrants a pause,but we see continued investment demand as a feature of2026. Geopolitics is likely to remain the primary driver, withmacro conditions potentially reinforcing the trend-mostTerm premium Risks to gold stem mainly from elevated precious-metalprices themselves while a sustained easing in geopolitical With the new Fed leadership decided, markets will have tograpple with an incoming hawklikely having to do thebidding of a dovish administration.How that plays out willbecome clearer onceWarshstarts toarticulate the vision forhis tenure.From what we know, that feels surprisingly like a What it means for the stock-bond correlation The stock–bond correlation typically turns more positivewhen the dominant shock is inflationary, supply-driven, orfiscally driven, as both asset classes can sell off together. In our view,the new setupshould continue to favour equitiesvia strong growthandleave yields higher for longer.Thatsaid,areduced balance sheet could be a headwind for risk World GoldCouncil Research We are a membership organisation that champions the rolegold plays as a strategic asset, shaping the future of aresponsible and accessible gold supply chain. Our team of Jeremy De Pessemier, CFAAsset Allocation Strategist Johan PalmbergSenior Quantitative Analyst Kavita ChackoResearch Head, India Krishan GopaulSenior Analyst, EMEA We drive industry progress, shaping policy and setting thestandards for a perpetual and sustainable gold market. Louise Street Marissa SalimSenior Research Lead, APAC Ray Jia Taylor BurnetteResearch Lead, Americas JuanCarlosArtigasGlobalHeadofResearch Market Strategy John ReadeSenior Market Strategist, Joseph CavatoniSenior MarketStrategist, Further information: Data sets and methodology visit:www.gold.org/goldhub Contact:research@gold.org Important information and disclosures ©2026World Gold Council. All rights reserved. World Gold Council and the Circle device are trademarks of the World Reproduction or redistribution of any of this information is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent ofWorld Gold Council or the appropriate copyright owners, except as specifically provided below. Information and The use of the statistics in this information is permitted for the purposes of review and commentary (including mediacommentary) in line with fair industry practice, subject to the following two pre-conditions: (i) only limited