高盛TMT今日 2025年12月4日

4 December 2025 | 8:39 PM China Standard Time Leyla KamshadGoldman Sachs & Co. LLCGlobal Banking & MarketsPeter BartlettGoldman Sachs & Co. LLCGlobal Banking & Markets Futures up slightly to start (NDX +5bps / SPX +10bps) as market continues to move higherfollowing yesterday's short-led rally. Market finished in the green despite down-on-the-daymoves from the Mag7 and our TMT Long basket. Overnight news quiet, as the market continuesto digest micro updates from conference season + off-quarter earnings. In TMT, focus is onSoftware earnings with CRM +2% (cRPO acceleration and Agentforce momentum) and SNOW-8% (product revenue deceleration and disappointment in 4Q guidance), as well as PATH +8%,NCNO +6%, and GWRE +5% (more below). On the events calendar today we have: JoblessClaims (8:30am), AWS re:Invent continues, CMCSA hosting Versant Investor meeting, andearnings from DOCU, HPE, and RBRK post-close. 期货开盘小幅上涨（NDX +5个基点/ SPX +10个基点），市场在昨日由做空主导的反弹后继续走高。尽管Mag7和我们的TMT多头组合当日收跌，市场仍以涨幅收盘。隔夜新闻寥寥，市场继续消化会议季的零碎更新和季外财报。在TMT领域，焦点在软件类财报：CRM上涨2%（cRPO因Agentforce动能有所加速），SNOW下跌8%（产品营收放缓且第四季度指引令人失望），此外还有PATH上涨8%、NCNO上涨6%和GWRE上涨5%（详情见下）。今日事件日程包括：初请失业金人数（上午8:30）、AWS re:Invent继续、CMCSA举办Versant投资者会议，以及收盘后发布财报的DOCU、HPE和RBRK。 CRM: 3Q Revenue just inline but cRPO accelerates slightly on Agentforce momentum;FY26 guidance raised. Stock +2% in pre. CRM：第三季度营收基本符合预期，但受益于Agentforce动能cRPO略有加速；上调2026财年指引。盘前股价上涨2%。 Revenue and guide were largely in-line with expectations (ex. Informatica), while OpMbeat by +140bps and cRPO grew +11% USD/CC vs. Consensus +10%. The stock isindicated +2% AH as investors credit strengthening AI momentum, adding confidencethat Salesforce can deliver on the revenue reacceleration path outlined at the Oct.Investor Day. We are similarly encouraged by: 1) Agentforce ARR reaching $540M (+330%YoY), while Data 360 & Agentforce reached $1.4B (+114% YoY), 2) Paid Agentforce dealssurpassing 9,500 (+50% QoQ), with 50% of bookings coming from existing customerexpansions, 3) Agentforce accounts in production increasing +70% QoQ, while customersleveraging Salesforce’s forward-deployed engineers are seeing +33% faster deploymenttimes, and 4) Agentforce One, the most premium SKU, doubling QoQ. More importantly,the underlying trends are firming: NNAOV (Net New Annual Order Value) growth alreadyoutpaced AOV (Annual Order Value) growth, while the company saw its largest quarter ofpipeline generation to date (growing double digits). We continue to view AI as a forcemultiplier for Salesforce, with Agentforce & Data 360 already enabling customers’bookings and AOV to 2x-3x (and 4x-5x for some). That said, mainstream enterprise AIadoption will take time, and topline reacceleration may not materialize for severalquarters. Even so, the quarter provided solid proof points that Salesforce can successfullynavigate the shift towards a SaaS era that is empowered by AI and agents. GIR fullnote. 收入和指引大体符合预期（不含Informatica），而营业利润率超预期约140个基点，cRPO按美元/汇率调整同比增长11%，共识为10%。盘后股价上涨约2%，投资者将此归因于AI动能的增强，增强了对Salesforce能够实现其在十月投资者日所述的营收再加速路径的信心。我们同样感到鼓舞的有：1）Agentforce年化经常性收入（ARR）达到5.4亿美元（同比增长330%），而Data 360与Agentforce合计达到14亿美元（同比增长114%）；2）付费的Agentforce合同超过9,500个（环比增长50%），其中50%的新单来自现有客户的扩展；3）投入生产的Agentforce帐户环比增长70%，使用Salesforce前置部署工程师的客户部署速度提高了33%；4）Agentforce One——最顶级的SKU——环比翻番。更重要的是，基本趋势在巩固：净新增年订购价值（NNAOV）增长已领先于年订购价值（AOV）增长，公司也录得有史以来最大季度的销售线索生成（实现两位数增长）。我们继续把人工智能视为Salesforce的倍增器，Agentforce和Data 360已经使客户的预订量和客单价增长至2倍到3倍（部分客户达4倍到5倍）。话虽如此，主流企业对AI的采纳需要时间，营收回升可能要等好几个季度才会显现。即便如此，本季度提供了有力证据表明Salesforce能够成功应对向由AI和代理驱动的SaaS时代的转变。GIR完整报告。 SNOW: Strong AI momentum overshadowed decel in Product Revs and 4Q OperatingMargin guided below. Stock -8% in pre. SNOW：强劲的AI势头掩盖了产品收入的放缓，并且将第四季度的运营利润率指引下调。盘前股价下跌8%。 F3Q results that saw Product Revenue +2.3% above Consensus (+29% growth vs. +31.5%prior Q) and NER stable at +125%, while Op. Income was +19% above Consensus and FCF-55% below (but maintaining FY26 FCFM of +25%). This was met with a F4Q ProductRevenue guide +1.1% above Consensus (+27% growth) but a slightly lower OpM outlook(+7% vs. Consensus +8.4%). The print broadly validated our view that AI is becoming aforce multiplier for the business: Snowflake Intelligence is seeing the fastest adoptionramp of any new product (+1200 customers), 50% of bookings were AI-influenced, andthe co. achieved $100M in run-rate AI Revenue one-quarter early. GIR fullnote. F3Q业绩中产品营收比市场预期高出2.3%（同比增长29%，前一季度为31.5%），净留存率稳定在+125%，营业收入比市场预期高出19%，自由现金流低于预期55%（但维持26财年自由现金流率预期为+25%）。公司给出的F4Q产品营收指引比市场预期高出1.1%（增长27%），但营业利润率前景略低（公司+7%，市场预期+8.4%）。该财报总体上验证了我们的观点：人工智能正成为业务的倍增器：Snowflake Intelligence的采用速度是所有新产品中最快的（新增客户+1200），50%的预定受AI影响，公司提前一个季度达成了1亿美元的AI运行率收入。详见GIR完整报告。 GWRE: Beat-and-raise quarter on particularly strong 1Q NNARR; 2Q guided ahead andFY26 raised. Stock +5% in pre. GWRE：本季度业绩超预期并上调指引，尤其是一季度净新增经常性收入（NNARR）非常强劲；二季度指引高于预期并上调26财年目标。盘前股价+5%。 Another beat-and-raise quarter across metrics, driven by record 1Q for sales activityamidst strong continued cloud migration momentum. ARR of