主席总结独立评估办公室——国际货币基金组织关于财政政策执行委员会会议的建议2025年12月4日

Executive Directors welcomed the IEO’s report covering fiscal advice provided as partoftheFund’ssurveillanceresponsibilityduringthe2008–23periodthatwasmarkedby exceptionalcircumstances, including the Global Financial Crisis and the global pandemic. They notedthat the shift experienced in this period toward greater fiscal activism for both short-runstabilization and long-term goals increased the need for clearer articulation of trade-offs amid Directors broadly supported Recommendation 1 to typically include in bilateral surveillanceclear, specific,and well-communicated advice on the fiscal stance, the macroeconomicimpact of the recommended fiscal policy, the policy mix, and spillovers, while ensuring theFund’s role as a trusted advisor. Directors agreed on the importance of consistency andevenhandedness in providing tailored advice, including to emerging and low-incomecountries,takingdueaccountofdatalimitationsandbindingdebtandfinancingconsiderations. Directors also generally noted the importance of considering elements of DirectorssupportedRecommendation2tomakemoreuseofexistinganalyticaltools andconduct further research on debt data, liquidity risks, medium-term anchors and paths, anddistributional effects. While agreeing on the need to find ways to increase staff take-up ofexisting tools, including realism tools, properly calibrated multipliers, and scenario analysis,they also stressed that these should inform rather than replace economists’ judgment. Directors supported, some of them with some qualifications, Recommendation 3 to enhancethe provision of proactive and specific advice on debt and fiscal risks, debt management, andinstitutional frameworks, including fiscal rules. They stressed the importanceoflinking making more reference to the Fund’s work on debt management, and supporting the adoptionof fiscal rules. Directors were also mindful of the resource implications of therecommendation, including developing staff expertise on debt financing, and noted that Directorssupported,someofthemwithsomequalifications,Recommendation4tostrengthen the articulation of trade-offs between competing long-term spending needs andfiscal sustainability, highlighting their effects on long-term growth, debt dynamics, anddistributional outcomes, and propose options to generate fiscal space whenfinancingconstraints are binding. While welcoming the progress already made in the coverage of long-term spending needs, they looked forward to adequate consideration of the IEO’s Inlinewithestablishedpractice, Managementandstaffwillgivecarefulconsideration totoday’s discussion in formulating the Management Implementation Plan (MIP) for Board-endorsed recommendations, drawing on the IEO’s specific suggestions to enhance fiscaladvice in a pragmatic, holistic and efficient manner. The MIP will prioritize and sequence theresponse to the IEO’s recommendations, leveraging key existing workstreamsincludingthe