主席总结独立评估办公室——国际货币基金组织关于财政政策执行委员会会议的建议2025年12月4日

Executive Directors welcomed the IEO’s report covering fiscal advice provided as partoftheFund’ssurveillanceresponsibilityduringthe2008–23periodthatwasmarkedby exceptionalcircumstances, including the Global Financial Crisis and the global pandemic. They notedthat the shift experienced in this period toward greater fiscal activism for both short-runstabilization and long-term goals increased the need for clearer articulation of trade-offs amidcompeting objectives. Against this background, Directors welcomed thegenerallypositiveassessmentoftheFund’srecentfiscalpolicyadviceandlookedforwardto theimplementation of the IEO’s key recommendations. Directors broadly supported Recommendation 1 to typically include in bilateral surveillanceclear, specific,and well-communicated advice on the fiscal stance, the macroeconomicimpact of the recommended fiscal policy, the policy mix, and spillovers, while ensuring theFund’s role as a trusted advisor. Directors agreed on the importance of consistency andevenhandedness in providing tailored advice, including to emerging and low-incomecountries,takingdueaccountofdatalimitationsandbindingdebtandfinancingconsiderations. Directors also generally noted the importance of considering elements ofpolitical economy and capacity constraints to increase traction of Fund advice, presentingwhere appropriate for the authorities’ consideration a menu of sound policy options,includinginthecriticalareaofdomesticrevenue mobilization.Pointingtotheelevateddebtlevels in many countries, a number of Directors stressed the need for greater focus of theFund’s advice on fiscal sustainability. Some Directors also underscored the importance ofbetter integration of advice on fiscal policy and external and exchange rate policies. DirectorssupportedRecommendation2tomakemoreuseofexistinganalyticaltools andconduct further research on debt data, liquidity risks, medium-term anchors and paths, anddistributional effects. While agreeing on the need to find ways to increase staff take-up ofexisting tools, including realism tools, properly calibrated multipliers, and scenario analysis,they also stressed that these should inform rather than replace economists’ judgment.Directors underscored the importance of continuously assessing and aiming to enhance dataavailability, supported by technical assistance. They welcomed the IEO’s acknowledgementthat research priorities should also be guided by cost-benefit and budget considerations.Directors also noted the significant advancesalready made in analyzing liquidity risks. Directors supported, some of them with some qualifications, Recommendation 3 to enhancethe provision of proactive and specific advice on debt and fiscal risks, debt management, andinstitutional frameworks, including fiscal rules. They stressed the importanceoflinkingfindingsfromdebtsustainabilityanalysistothebaselinepolicyadvice, identifying andmitigating fiscal risks, including through preemptive measures and contingency planning, making more reference to the Fund’s work on debt management, and supporting the adoptionof fiscal rules. Directors were also mindful of the resource implications of therecommendation, including developing staff expertise on debt financing, and noted thatdecisions on adopting certain institutional arrangements are ultimately the prerogative ofmember states. Directorssupported,someofthemwithsomequalifications,Recommendation4tostrengthen the articulation of trade-offs between competing long-term spending needs andfiscal sustainability, highlighting their effects on long-term growth, debt dynamics, anddistributional outcomes, and propose options to generate fiscal space whenfinancingconstraints are binding. While welcoming the progress already made in the coverage of long-term spending needs, they looked forward to adequate consideration of the IEO’srecommendations in the Comprehensive Surveillance Review (CSR) to further refine theguidance on coverage of long-term issues guided by the principles of macrocriticality andselectivity. Directors generally emphasized the need for continued and enhancedcollaboration with other IFIs in areas with limited Fund expertise, including the detailedcosting and financing assessments of long-term development spending pressures. Inlinewithestablishedpractice, Managementandstaffwillgivecarefulconsideration totoday’s discussion in formulating the Management Implementation Plan (MIP) for Board-endorsed recommendations, drawing on the IEO’s specific suggestions to enhance fiscaladvice in a pragmatic, holistic and efficient manner. The MIP will prioritize and sequence theresponse to the IEO’s recommendations, leveraging key existing workstreamsincludingtheCSR,ReviewofConditionalityand LIC-DSFreviewtotheextent possible, and alsoconsidering resource requirements and the risks associatedwithnon-implementation.ManagementwillalsoreflectonthecallofsomeDirectorsforearly implementation ofrecommendations on operational aspects that do not require a policy