2025年航空航天行业市场分析

2025Aerospace IndustryMarket Analysis Executive Summary UHY’s 2025 Aerospace Market Outlook delivers a strategic analysis of the current economic climate,emerging industry trends, and the evolving landscape of mergers and acquisitions across theaerospace sector. This report highlights key developments within commercial aviation, defense,air cargo, and general aviation, offering forward-looking insights to support investment andoperational decision-making. Our analysis draws from the FAA’s Fiscal Year 2025–2045 Aerospace Forecast, the International AirTransport Association’s (IATA) Global Outlook, and additional proprietary industry databases to providea comprehensive view of market dynamics shaping the aerospace industry in 2025 and beyond. Table of Contents Industry Overview3Global Economic Outlook4Commercial Aviation8Aerospace13Cargo17UAV18General Aviation20Defense23Aerospace M&A Activity24 Industry Overview In 2024, the aerospace industry sustained its upward trajectory, recording global revenues ofapproximately $860 billion, a 4% increase from 2023. Growth was supported by an uptick incommercial travel, fleet modernization, and geopolitical drivers of defense spending. Major OEMs andairlines capitalized on post-pandemic demand with margin expansion and strategic investments. •Commercial aviation recovered well, with global revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs)reaching 99% of 2019 levels. Both domestic and international markets posted growth, drivenby pent-up leisure and continued expansion of business travel, with many airlines investing inmore first-class and upgraded business cabins. •Globaloperating profitsfor commercial carriers exceeded $75 billion (vs $73 billion in 2023),driven by higher yields, reduced fuel volatility, and improved cost discipline.•Supply chain disruptionsand labor shortages persisted, creating production delays andescalating costs.•Aircraft production backlogsremained historically high. Boeing and Airbus alone reportedover 14,000 aircraft in backlog combined, reflecting continued strong fleet demand despiteglobal challenges.•Air cargo traffic stabilized,posting modest growth in late 2024 after two years of decline.Global Freight Tonne Kilometers (FTKs) rose 2.5% YoY; yet pricing has experienced downwardpressure from previous post-pandemic highs.•General aviationaircraft deliveries increased to over 2,200 units, a 5% rise from 2023, led byprivate business jets and turboprops.•Commercial space launchescontinued their rapid ascent, driven by SpaceX, Blue Origin, andglobal government initiatives. The cost per kilogram to orbit has fallen by over 90% since 2010. Outlook for 2025 and beyond The aerospace sector in 2025 and beyond is expected to advance across multiple areas: •Passenger air travel is projected to surpass pre-pandemic levels globally, with RPKs expectedto grow by 6.1% year-over-year.•Defense budgets remain elevated across NATO and allied countries due to ongoinggeopolitical tensions, supporting strong military aerospace demand, especially inunmanned platforms.•OEMs will focus on digital transformation, predictive maintenance technologies, andsustainability through sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) initiatives and electric/hybrid propulsion. Despite bullish growth expectations, risks remain, including supply chain strain, limited manufacturingcapacity, and continued talent shortages (now mostly due to an aging “baby boomer” generation).To sustain progress, industry players must invest in automation, nearshoring, and workforce upskilling. Global Economic Outlook Drawing from recent forecasts by the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, the globaleconomy in 2025 continues to reflect a complex mix of resilience and volatility. While recovery isunderway, the pace remains uneven across regions due to persistent inflation, elevated interest rates,and lingering geopolitical uncertainty. Global growth Global GDP growth remained modest in 2024, holding at 3.1% (same as 2023), and is forecasted torise slightly to 3.2% in 2025, according to the OECD Economic Outlook (May 2025). While still belowlong-term trends, this reflects cautious optimism as inflationary pressures gradually ease andmonetary tightening slows. Growth disparities remain evident: •Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan) is projected to lead global expansion, with India and Chinaposting the strongest growth rates at 6.6% and 4.7%, respectively. This region continues tobenefit from demographic momentum, infrastructure investment, and industrial digitalization.•Latin America, Eastern Europe, and the Middle East are expected to see moderate gainssupported by commodity exports and regional trade improvements.•Mature economies, including the United States and Europe, are forecast to grow at 1.6% and1.3%, respectively, constrained by tight labor markets, aging populations, subdued productivitygrowth, and now geopolitical and trade tensions (i.e. tariffs). Analysts project slow but steady growth through the