中国经济更新，2025年12月：推进改革，增强前景

© 2025International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank1818 H Street NWWashington DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000Internet:www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusionsexpressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of ExecutiveDirectors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors,denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on thepart of The World Bank concerning the legal statusof any territory or the endorsement or acceptance ofsuch boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of itsknowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as fullattribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World BankPublications, The World Bank Group,1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625;e-mail:pubrights@worldbank.org. Cover Photo: ©metamorworks/Shutterstock Acknowledgements TheDecember2025issue of the China Economic Update was prepared by a team comprisingKevin Chua(Task Team Leader),Yusha Li(co-Task Team Leader), Jun Ge,Elitza Mileva,Katherine Anne Stapleton,Shichao Zhou,Sailesh Tiwari,Gitanjali Kumar,andZhencen Liu. The special focus note onHouseholdSavings and Financial Intermediation in Chinawas prepared by Marius Vismantas,Abayomi Alawode,SiqiFangand Jiahang Yu. Guidance and thoughtful comments from Mara Warwick, Lalita M. Moorty,AadityaMattoo,Habib Rab,Benu Bidani,Francesco Strobbe,and Ergys Islamaj are gratefully acknowledged. Theteam would like to thank Tianshu Chen, Ying Yu, Luoyi Zhou,andYige Zhangfor support in the productionand dissemination of this report. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this reportdo not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the Chinesegovernment. Questionsand feedback can be addressed to Tianshu Chen (tchen@worldbank.org). Table of Contents Executive Summary......................................................................................................................................1I.Recent Economic Developments......................................................................................................5Growth remains resilient despite headwinds...............................................................................................5Shipments to emerging markets supported exports amid trade uncertainty..............................................7Inflation remains muted even as policy support helped boost some goods prices.....................................9Easing revenues and rising debt have tightened fiscal space at the local level.........................................10Private credit demand continued to soften despite monetary easing.......................................................11II.Outlook, Risks, and Policy Implications.........................................................................................16Outlook andrisks........................................................................................................................................16Policy implications......................................................................................................................................17III.Special Focus: Household Savings and Financial Intermediation in China...................................20China’s high household savings matter for rebalancing domestic demand...............................................20How household savings flow through the financial system.......................................................................21Implications for domestic demand and priorities for financial rebalancing...............................................24 Figure Figure 1. Growth was steady in Q3, but the soft labor market weighed on consumer demand.................6Figure 2. The property sector experienced renewed weakness in Q3.........................................................7Figure 3. Export growth has remained robust, despite trade policy uncertainty.........................................8Figure 4. Strong current account gains were offset by capital outflows......................................................9Figure 5. Policy measures have provided only a modest boost to consumer and producer prices...........10Figure 6. Fiscal pressures on local governments have intensified due to lower land lease revenue andhigher debt..................................................................................................................................................11Figure 7. Government bond purchases drove credit growth, whi