中国汽车：2025年专有调查（第一部分）——购买意向增强，宏观前景乐观；比亚迪位居榜首，小米第三

Chinese Autos: Proprietary survey 2025, Part 1. Stronger purchaseintentions, Optimistic macro outlook; BYD ranked Top, XiaomiThird Our proprietary survey of Chinese car buyers, 2025 edition.Since 2015, we haveconducted an annual online survey to gauge Chinese consumer sentiment, car-buyingintentions, brand preferences, and other related areas of interest such as attitudes towardselectric vehicles. Our 2025 survey encompassed the views of 1,531 Chinese consumersacross a broad spectrum of age groups, income brackets and regions. Eunice Lee, CFA+852 2123 2606eunice.lee@bernsteinsg.com Mika Fu+852 2166 4805mika.fu@bernsteinsg.com Stronger purchase intentions, surprisingly more optimistic macro outlook.The 2025survey reveals a notable and broad-based increase in car purchase intentions, rising to55% from 42% the previous year, consistent across all city tiers and most income groups.This surge is likely driven by supportive subsidy policies, as well as a surprisingly optimisticmacroeconomic outlook, with 77% of respondents expressing positivity—the highest in fiveyears. This optimism likely arises from economic conditions and consumer confidence inChina having reached their lowest point, suggesting a potential stabilization or recovery,further supported by a stronger stock market. Notably, this positive sentiment is reflectedin indicators such as robust premium smartphone sales for iPhone and Xiaomi’s 17-series,as well as recent improvements in Macau’s gross gaming revenue, notwithstanding demandweakness and deflationary pressures continue to affect other consumer sectors. Ethan Xu+852 2123 2634ethan.xu@bernsteinsg.com BYD maintains top brand awareness; Xiaomi surges to third.Similar to last year, BYDmaintained the highest unaided recall rate (though it declined by 3 percentage pointsyoy), followed by Tesla and Xiaomi. Remarkably, Xiaomi—having launched its first EV since2024 only—improved its unaided recall rate by 4 percentage points compared to 2024,and climbed to third place among all brands. AITO’s brand awareness also improvedsignificantly this year, positioning just behind German premium brands, VW, and Li Auto.Surprisingly, Geely’s brand awareness saw only a modest increase despite market sharegains, trailing behind VW, Toyota, and Honda. Domestic EV Brands lead buyer consideration; foreign brands stabilize.Overall, interms of brand preferences, domestic pure-play EV brands lead in consideration whenbuying a new car, which aligns with BYD and Xiaomi’s strong positions. Among foreignbrands, there is some stabilization: German premium and mass-market brands, as well asJapanese and Korean brands, have reversed a five-year decline in interest, showing slightincreases—though interest remains below 2023 levels. Conversely, domestic traditionalbrands experienced a decline, with interest falling below 2022 levels. Additionally, domestictraditional brands continue to rank highest in brand avoidance, followed by Korean brands. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We hold a cautious view of the sector. China’s auto sales in 2025 1H have trended above expectations, which was boostedby the revamped trade-in policy and local government subsidies, accelerated new product launches, and increased OEMpromotions. Policy support could help sustain stronger demand through the rest of 2025, though yoy comparisons will becomemore difficult from late Q3. We also expect exports will continue to be a growth driver, albeit at a more moderate growth ratethan previous years. We forecast industry wholesale volumes to grow by 8% and reach c.29.5mn units in 2025, comprisingc.24mn units (+7% yoy) for the domestic market and c.5.5mn units (+10% yoy) for exports. The long term secular growth outlook for EVs remains intact and even though EV transition has come to the mass adoptionphase in China, we forecast EV sales growth will be c.30% for 2025 and drive EV penetration to 57%. We expect competitionwithin the domestic market to remain intense and put pressure on pricing and profitability. Meanwhile, overseas markets willcontinue to present a strategic growth opportunity. For our EV names, we rateBYD and Xiaomi Outperform, andXPeng, LiAuto, and NIO Market-Perform. Within our traditional Chinese OEMs coverage, we rateGeely OutperformandGreat Wall,GAC, and SAIC Market-Perform. VALUATION COMPS TABLEASIAN AUTOS Table Of Contents Survey highlights...................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 4Our proprietary survey of 1,531 Chinese consumers — on demographics........................................................................................................ 82025 shows stronger car purchase intentions, despite signs of deflationary pressure.................................................................................9BYD still topped spontaneous bra