中国经济更新，2025年6月：释放消费（英）

II© 2025International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank1818 H Street NWWashington DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000Internet:www.worldbank.orgThis work is a product of the staff of The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusionsexpressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of ExecutiveDirectors, or the governments they represent.The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors,denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on thepart of The World Bank concerning the legal statusof any territory or the endorsement or acceptance ofsuch boundaries.Rights and PermissionsThe material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of itsknowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as fullattribution to this work is given.Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World BankPublications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625;e-mail:pubrights@worldbank.org.Cover Photo: ©Eastfenceimage/ Shutterstock IIIAcknowledgementsTheJune2025issue of the China Economic Update was prepared by a team comprisingKevin Chua(TaskTeam Leader),Yusha Li(co-Task Team Leader), Jun Ge,Elitza Mileva,DaisukeFukuzawa,Dewen Wang,Yang Huang,Maria Ana Lugo,Marius Vismantas, Shichao Zhou,Sailesh Tiwari,Veronica Montalva Talledo,Gitanjali Kumar,Zhencen Liuand Siqi Fang. Guidance and thoughtful comments from Mara Warwick, LalitaM. Moorty,Aaditya Mattoo, Sebastian Eckardt,Benu Bidani,Francesco Strobbe,and Ergys Islamaj aregratefully acknowledged. The team would like to thank Tianshu Chen, Ying Yu, Luoyi Zhou,Mingjie Li, andYige Zhangfor support in the production and dissemination of this report. The findings, interpretations,and conclusions expressed in this report do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors ofthe World Bank or the Chinese government. Questionsand feedback can be addressed to Tianshu Chen (tchen@worldbank.org). IVTable of ContentsExecutive Summary......................................................................................................................................1I.Recent Economic Developments......................................................................................................5Growth was resilient but remained constrained by subdued consumer demand.......................................5A larger current account surplus only partly offset increased net capital outflows....................................6The property sector remained weak despite higher demand in first-tier cities...........................................8More renewables and slower power demand growth reduced carbon emissions......................................9Low inflation persists amid weak aggregate demand................................................................................10Fiscal support helped shore up domestic demand.....................................................................................11Private-sectorcredit demand remains muted despite monetary easing...................................................12Bank profitability has come under pressure...............................................................................................13II.Outlook, Risks, and Policy Implications.........................................................................................17Outlook.......................................................................................................................................................17Risks……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………18Policy implications......................................................................................................................................18III.Special Focus:Jobs in Transition....................................................................................................21Mirroring the shift in growth drivers, labor market trends have diverged across sectors.........................22Informal, migrant, and young workers have been disproportionately affected........................................26Technology is also reshaping the labor market..........................................................................................28Policies for more and better jobs................................................................................................................32FiguresFigure1. Policy measures supported growth in some sectors of the economy...........................................6Figure2. Robust shipments to emerging markets contributed to a higher current account surplus..........7Figure3. The property sector remains weak despite demand rebound in top tier cities............................9Figure4. Ca