2026年股指年度展望：结构为王盈利为核

20262026PPI Z0016413gaoxiang@nawaa.com Z0022951liaocy@nawaa.com 20111290 0571-817271070571-89727506 1.2025...................................................1 1.1.....................................................................................11.22025..............................................................61.31-3....................81.44-6..............................................81.57-8..........................................81.69-12........................................8 2.2026.....................................................10 2.1...........................................102.2PPI............................................122.3.................................................................14 3..........................................................................................................19 3.1.........................193.2...........................................193.3................................19 1.1300.............................................................11.2300........................................................................21.350...............................................................21.450..........................................................................31.5500.............................................................41.6500........................................................................41.71000...........................................................51.81000......................................................................51...........................................................................61.9............................................................................71.101000....................................................................72.112.....................................................................112.2PPIA%.122.32025PPI......................................................132.4................................................................................132.5.......................................................................................142.6...........................................................152.7..............................................................................162.8..........................................................................172.9...................................................................17 1.2025 1.1 300505001000 300 200530060%20073002008202025%-40%202030010%-20%5%20%2025 50 50202050%30%35%10%502021202320%15% Wind 500 50010%25%5006%10%1%15%-20%20%10% 1000 100025% 20%30%10002020-202324%——15%10%5%  300505001000 80%2025 1.22025 2025 1.31-3 deepseekDeepseekAI3333 1.44-6 AA5 1.57-8 37789A0.03%2.38%17% 1.69-12 9AI 2025A20252026 2.2026 2025A20262026 2.1 2025375BP3.50%-3.75%122026GDP0.52.3%2025PCE3.1%3.0%20262.6%2.5%2%20282%12SEP26GDP0.1pct0.5pct2026FED 25bp3.5%-3.75%3%50bp75-100bp12 1220262025 GDP5%202620262025+ 2025+ 2.2PPI PPI2026APPIPPIPPIPPIAPPIAPPI1-3PPI 2023PPI-2.5%202511 PPI2.2%100.1PPI100.1%110.1%PPI PPI22012-20152016PPI+201620161616PPI PPIPPI7PPI PPI5PPI-1%-02026PPI24 2.3 202520262025 1 PE-TTM95%50010002025 2 2025912PE-TTM30050 3 20251.42%LPR20251LPR10BP202435BP20262025A202512222025399.592024254.4350%IPO861181IPO60%20262025105.488%202530% 4 2025200%20258%PPI2026 PPI 2026AA 3. 3.1 ICIMICIMIFIH 3.2 IMIF1-35%IFIM 3.3 MO / 1363100084008888910www.nanhua.net603093