2060世界和中国能源展望报告（2025版）

Foreword Currently,the factors influencing energy development are becoming increasingly complex.Technologicalinnovationisdrivingasustainedglobaleconomicrecovery,acceleratingthegrowthof Althoughtheoverarchingtrendofcleanandlow-carbonenergytransformationremainsunchanged,major-power relations have shifted from cooperative competition to strategic rivalry.Energy has Consideringthis,the 2025 edition of the report has reconfigured three scenarios to better Three Scenarios for the 2025 Energy Outlook 1. EnergyDemand Continues to Grow at a Robust Pace Economicdevelopmentdrivesrobustgrowthinenergydemand.Overthenextdecade,globalenergydemandisprojectedtoincreasebyanaverageof230Mtoeannually,matchingthegrowthrateofthepasttwodecades.By2035,totalenergydemandis Lookingfurtherahead,globalenergydemandissettorisebymorethan30%inthelongterm.Underthreedifferentscenarios,energydemandisprojectedtomaintainanupwardtrajectory,reachingbetween20.2and21.3billiontonsofstandardoil 2. Slow Decarbonization of Energy Mix Amid Rising Fossil Fuel Resilience Fossilenergy demand continues to grow and remains a dominant share.Underthe baseline scenario, fossil energy demand willreach 12.7 billion tons of oil equivalent by 2035, up by 400 million tons from 2025, still accounting for over 70% of primaryenergy. Inthe long run, the share of non-fossil energy will steadily increase, while fossil fuels will continue to serve a foundationaland stabilizing role.Across three scenarios, the share of non-fossil energy rises from 20% in 2025 to 55–67% by 2060.Underthe 3. Oil demand peak will be higher and will occur later Multiplefactorsarecollectivelydelayingthepeakofglobaloildemand.Underthebaselinescenario,thepeakinglobaloildemandisprojectedtooccuraround2040—tenyearslaterthanpreviouslyforecastinthe2024outlook—withpeakdemand Shoulddivisionsamongnationscontinuetowiden,underChasmScenario,thepeakinoildemandwouldbefurtherdelayedto Thedrivingforcebehindoildemandgrowthisundergoingafundamentalshift—from"fuel-driven"to"feedstock-driven." Underthebaselinescenario,globaldemandforpetrolanddieselwillremainatpeaklevelsuntil2035,whilenaphthaconsumption Thecenterofoildemandisgraduallyshiftingtowardresource-richcountries.Inthelongterm,TheshareofdemandfromregionssuchastheMiddleEast,LatinAmerica,andAfricaissettoincreasefromlessthan20%in2025tonearly30%by2060. Intheshortterm,NorthAmericanshaleoilanddeepwateroilinCentralandSouthAmericawillcontinuetogrow. However,risingdevelopmentcostswillconstraintheirlong-termgrowthpotential,withproductionpeakingaround2030. TheMiddleEast’slow-costcruderesourcespositiontheregiontobecomethedominantforceinglobaloilsupplyafter2035.UndertheBaselineScenario,theMiddleEast’sshareofglobalproductionwillrisetoover40%by2060. 4. Growth Potential of Natural Gas Demand Has Been Elevated Naturalgasdemandgrowthpotentialrises,drivenbyeconomictransition,carbonemissionreductionandrisingelectricitydemand.Peakdemandreaches5Tcm(11%above2024Outlook)in2040-2045underthebaselinescenario. AIDrivesNewGrowthSurgeinGas-FiredPower.TherapidgrowthofAIandcomputingcentersisboostingelectricitydemand,gaspoweropeninga"goldendecade"ofexpansion.Globalgas-firedcapacityisprojectedtoreach3,000GWby2035. NorthAmericaandtheMiddleEastwillleadgasproductiongrowth.Overthenextdecade,globalgasproductionincreasesby750bcm(1.3%annual),withthetworegionscontributingover70%. ThecommissioningofglobalLNGliquefactionprojectsisaccelerating.TotalLNGliquefactioncapacityissettoexceed700milliontonsperyearby2030,supportedbyabout230milliontonsperyearofnewcapacitycomingonlineinthenextfewyears. 5. Multiple Factors Drive Long-Term Growth in Global Electricity Demand Thenewroundofindustrialrevolutionisdrivingrapidgrowthinelectricitydemand.Acrossthreescenarios,globalelectricitydemandisprojectedtoreach69–81PWhby2060,withanaverageannualgrowthrateof2.3–2.8%from2025to Globalterminalenergyelectrificationratesareaccelerating.terminalelectrificationratesworldwidewillriseto46%–54%by2060acrossallthreescenarios,representinganaverageannualincreaseof0.6–0.8percentagepointsduringtheprojectionperiod. 6.As 2°C Goal Grows More Challenging,CooperationBecomes Essential Underboth baseline and Chasm scenarios,energy-related CO₂emissions continue to rise, Solidarityand cooperation represent the sole pathwayto achieving the 2°C temperaturecontroltarget.Under the cooperation scenario, 1. Chinais Steadily Advancing its Energy Development and Transition Chinahasdefinedclearobjectivesforeconomicandsocialdevelopment,formulatedawell-structuredenergytransitionstrategy,andissteadilyadvancingtowardsitsdualcarbongoalsaccordingtotheestablishedtimeline.Consequently,the Bymid-century: Economic & By2030: •Peakcarbonemissions. Energy •Greenhouse-gasemissionsfall7-10%fromthepeak.•Non-fossilenergyexceed30%oftheenergymix.•Windandsolarinstalledcapacitysurpasses3600GW. 2. Steady Growth and a Sustained High Level for Energy Demand China'sprimaryenergydemandisprojectedtogrowsteadily,peakingatapproximately5000Mtoe(about