2060年中国能源展望（2025版）

Abstract Macro-environmentally, the global economy maintains sluggishgrowth amid persistent inflation risks. Developed economies areintensifying global geopolitical and economic complexitiesthrough accelerated deployment of carbon-centric green tradebarriers. While China's economy remains fundamentally soundwith long-term growth prospects, its current structuraladjustment phase coincides with strong short-to-medium termenergy demand from both traditional and emerging sectors. Theenergy transition faces dual pressures: surging non-fossil energysupplies confront absorption bottlenecks while low-carbontechnology competition escalates globally, potentially acceleratingindustrial transformation. This technological rivalry mayultimately clarify optimal decarbonization pathways. To facilitateeffective low-carbon competition and energy substitution whileadvancing carbon neutrality goals, policy frameworks areevolving along three dimensions: regulatory focus shifting fromenergy consumption to carbon emissions, policy instrumentstransitioning from direct subsidies to target-based mechanisms,transition drivers moving from government mandates to marketforces. This report outlines thr e e d e c a r bo n i z a t i o n p a t hw a y s -Coordinated Development, Security Challenge, and Green Drive -all targeting China's dual carbon goals (2030 peak, 2060neutrality). Key projections in the Coordinated DevolopmentScenario: China'sprimaryenergyconsumptiongrowth is decelerating amidintensifying competition within the energy sector. In 2024, totalenergy consumption reached 5.97 Billion tonnes of coalequivalent (Btce), marking a 4.3% year-on-year increase. Notably,non-fossil energy consumption surpassed oil for the first time,rising to 19.7% of the total. Projections indicate sustained growthuntil 2030, after which consumption will plateau, with non-fossilenergy contributing over 80% to incremental demand. From2035 to 2060, total energy consumption is expected to declinefrom a peak of 6.94 Btce to 5.95 Btce. China’scoalconsumptionis approaching a plateau. In 2024, coaluse rose to 4.85 billion tonnes but declined to 54% of total energyconsumption. This volume is projected to stabilize above 4.8billion tonnes annually through 2029, while its usage structureshifts rapidly: coal allocated to power generation will increasefrom 54% to 58%. By 2060, total coal consumption is anticipatedto fall below 0.5 billion tonnes. China'soilconsumptionis entering a plateau phase. In 2024, totaloil use fell to 750 million tonnes , driven by weak industrialdemand, slowing fuel-vehicle growth, and rapid substitution byrenewables and LNG. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, oilconsumption is projected to stabilize above 770 million tonnes,peaking at 790-800 million tonnes, supported by chemicalindustry demand. By 2060, it is expected to drop to 260 milliontonnes. Finalenergyconsumptionis transforming rapidly throughdigitization and electri�ication. In 2024,�inal consumptionreached 4.26 Btce, with a projected peak above 4.6 Btce by themid-2020s. Electricity is set to surpass coal as the largestterminal energy source during the 14th Five-Year Plan.Electri�ication and hydrogen adoption rates will rise from 32%(2024) to 71% (2060). Energy-relatedcarbonemissionsare plateauing. In 2024, CO2emissions hit 10.65 billion tonnes (excluding chemical productcarbon�ixation), with a peak above 10.8 billion tonnesexpected by the mid-2020s. Declining coal/oil use and carbonsequestration from industrial feedstocks will drive reductions.By 2060, residual emissions (2.1 billion tonnes) will requireCCUS and carbon sinks for neutralization. Naturalgasconsumptionhas rebounded to medium-high growth.In 2024, gas use reached 430 billion cubic meters (Bcm) and isprojected to rise by over 110 Bcm during the 14th Five-Year Plan,peaking at 620 Bcm between 2035-2040. Industrial coal-to-gasswitching and LNG trucks remain key drivers. By 2060,consumption is forecast to decline to 420 Bcm. China’srenewableenergysectorfaces absorption challengesdespite rapid expansion. In 2024, non-fossil energy supply rose to1.18 Btce, led by wind and solar. Installed wind/solar capacity hit1380GW, generating 1800TWh. Short-term growth hinges on rateadjustments, while long-term solutions like green hydrogen,ammonia, and energy storage will address grid integration. Non-fossil energy is projected to reach 3.5 Btce (50% share) by 2045and 4.7 Btce (80% share) by 2060. Contents Chapter9Appendix 49Energy Sankeys73 51Carbon Sankeys76 53Data Tables79 Additional Notes90 Chapter7EnergyStorageandCCUS Energy Storage57 CCUS59 Chapter8FinalenergySectors Transport Sector63 Industry Sector67 Buildings Sector69 Chapter1Macrotrends lInternationalEconomyThe global economy continues to experience slow growth.Coupled with the strengthening of the new green trade barriers, it brings new challengesto China's economic and energy transition lDomesticEconomyChina's economic and social development has