先锋领航2026年经济与市场展望：AI非理性繁荣：经济上行，股市下行

Rapid evolution has increased AI’s potential to become a transformative economicforce, with promising implications for productivity across industries. Adoption is Higher growth Equity markets may remainexuberant but face rising risks We favor fixed incomeand value stocks On the back of AI capitalinvestment and a potentialproductivity surge, the U.S.economy could eventuallygrow by 3%. Solid growthand still-sticky inflation will In the near term, growth-and tech-heavy U.S. equitiescould continue to play anoutsized role in shapingsentiment across globalcapital markets. However, We maintain our viewthat high-quality bondsoffer compelling realreturns. From a risk-returnperspective, both U.S.value-oriented and non-U.S.developed markets equitiesprovide more attractive Contents 3 15 Global outlooksummary Our outlookfor AI Market andportfolio outlook Source:Vanguard. Vanguard’s latest economic and market views For updates to Vanguard’s economic, market, and portfolio views throughout the year, Global outlook summary Financial markets are exuberant—and there aresome good reasons for that. Despite megatrendheadwinds in 2025 like demographic slowdownsand rising tariffs, economies held firm. U.S. investment and fiscal thrust from the One BigBeautiful Bill Act. The first half of the yearmay be softer given the lingering effects of thestagflationary megatrend shocks of tariffs anddemographics, as well as yet-to-materialize Our data-driven megatrends framework showsthese supply-side forces will shift again in 2026.How well AI investment will counteract negativeshocks shapes our economic outlook. Over thenext five years, we see an 80% chance that Economic growth is expected to keep U.S.inflation somewhat persistent, remaining above2% by the close of 2026. This combination of solidgrowth and still-sticky inflation suggests that Given similar AI-related dynamics, our forecastfor China’s economic growth is also aboveconsensus expectations in 2026. Despite ongoing Higher growth is on the horizon, We anticipate that AI will stand out amongother megatrends, given its capacity to transformthe labor market and drive productivity. AI Conversely, our risk assessment for the euro areais more consensus-like given the lack of strong AIdynamics. We anticipate growth to hover near1% in 2026, as the drag from higher U.S. tariffs isoffset by increased defense and infrastructure The ongoing wave of AI-driven physicalinvestment is expected to be a powerful force,reminiscent of past periods of major capitalexpansion such as the development of railroadsin the mid-19th century and the late-1990sinformation and telecommunications surge. Our A differentiated investment playbook Our capital markets outlook differs acrossmarkets, asset classes, and investment timehorizons. Overall, our medium-run outlook formultiasset portfolios remains constructive, withpositive after-inflation returns likely to continue. But this future is not quite now. In 2026, theU.S. is positioned for a more modest acceleration The heady expectations for U.S. technologystocks are unlikely to be met for at least tworeasons. The first is the already-high earningsexpectations, and the second is the typicalunderestimation of creative destruction from But let us be clear: Risks are growing amid thisexuberance, even if it appears “rational” bysome metrics. More compelling investmentopportunities are emerging elsewhere even forthose investors most bullish on AI’s prospects. Our capital markets projections show that thestrongest risk-return profiles across public 1.High-quality U.S. fixed income. The history of investing during technology cyclesreveals some counterintuitive—yet increasingly 2.U.S. value-oriented equities. compelling—investment opportunitiesregardless 3.Non-U.S. developed markets equities. of whether AI proves transformative or not. BothU.S. value-oriented and non-U.S. developedmarkets equities should benefit most over We maintain our secular view that high-qualitybonds (both taxable and municipal) offercompelling real returns given higher neutral rates.Returns should average near current portfolioincome levels, representing a comfortable marginover the rate of expected future inflation. That’s Overall, these three investment opportunities areboth offensive and defensive. This risk assessmentholds no matter whether today’s AI exuberance IMPORTANT: The projections and otherinformation generated by the Vanguard CapitalMarkets Model® (VCMM) regarding the likelihoodof various investment outcomes are hypotheticalin nature, do not reflect actual investmentresults, and are not guarantees of future results. The history of investing during technologycycles reveals some counterintuitive We remain most guarded in our assessmentof tech-heavy U.S. growth stocks, which haveoutperformed most other investments by anastounding margin over the last few years. Yet aswe will show in this outlook, ourmutedexpectedreturns for the technology sector a