2026年经济与市场展望

Reshaping Reshaping Executive summary interest rates will also help. At the time of writing, thelabor market is showing signs of weakness, but we do notexpect a material rise in unemployment, especially if the By Rupert Watson, Global Head of Economicsand Dynamic Asset Allocation, Mercer 2025 has felt like a hugely consequential year, and2026 is likely to follow suit. President Trump seemsto have put the US on a different path to that trodsince 1945, ripping up the old economic consensus.The aftermath of this administration will be felt foryears to come, and its success will only be able to Investment is likely to remain strong, driven by theAI boom. The sums involved are huge and are likelyto benefit the US and other countries where the The euro-area economy should also strengthen a little,supported by investment-led growth in Germany on theback of its infrastructure and defense spending plans.While economic growth in the eurozone is likely to bebetter over the next few years, it remains to be seen Of course, as Yogi Berra once said, “it’s tough to makepredictions, especially about the future,” but as investorswe must try, and our annual outlook offers our thoughtson the global economy and markets. In 2025, the twobig developments were President Trump’s trade agenda, The same can be said about the UK. Its problems arewell known — poorly targeted government spending,low investment and productivity growth, an onerousregulatory regime (including planning), and poorgovernment finances. The new Labour government has We expect the global economy to strengthen a little in2026 as trade headwinds fade and monetary and fiscalpolicy loosens at the margin. In the US, we are likely to seethe continued slow pass-through of tariffs to consumer We remain optimistic on the outlook for Japan and thinkthe era of deflation is over and that Japan may be entering In China, the property crisis persists, with consumptionstuck at low levels. However, China’s lead in a broad rangeof technologies should support the economy over the nextdecade, while an eventual consumer recovery should help support equities, although it is worth remembering thatwhile the technology optimists were right in the late90s about how the internet would change the world, In the near-term, we expect global inflation to becontained somewhere near central banks’ targets. In theUS, while we are likely to see a near-term spike becauseof tariffs, we would expect this effect to fade aroundlate 2026 through 2027. We see wage growth as the key In the US, the Federal Reserve (Fed) has restarted itsloosening cycle. While we see further cuts as likely, we donot think this is the start of a major loosening campaign,as the labor market is unlikely to weaken sharply, while In terms of financial markets, our conviction level remainsguarded, in large part because we expect overall economicgrowth, inflation, and monetary policy to convergetowards long-term averages. It also reflects the difficultyof gauging whether the AI boom is turning into, or hasalready turned into a bubble. The sums being invested are Elsewhere, government bond yields are at reasonablelevels in most parts of the world, although we wouldexpect long-dated gilt yields to decrease as inflationand wage growth fall and fiscal fears moderate. Creditspreads are very tight, and while a benign economic Economic growth investment is expected to reach close to $500 billion (seeFigure 1). The OBBBA should also support growth in 2026by extending — and making permanent — personal taxcuts and providing incentives for a pull forward of furtherbusiness investment. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is We think US economic growth will remain resilient and closeto trend in 2026, after a modest slowdown at the end of2025. Consumption growth should be respectable, driven by We expect euro-area growth to pick up as we move into2026. We forecast a sizeable tailwind from increasedGerman government spending on both infrastructure andthe military. Consumption, which has been weak over recentyears, could strengthen if households decide to spend The UK economy should remain soft in 2026 as fiscal policysupport from H1 2025 fades and fiscal tightening takesover. Rising unemployment, slowing wage growth and thelagged effects from past interest-rate hikes will also weighon consumption growth. Business uncertainty may also not expect domestic demand to rebound from its recentslowdown without a meaningful increase in stimulativepolicy or a shift in consumer sentiment. While householdsavings rates are high, they are unlikely to be put to workin the absence of a catalyst such as a turnaround in thehousing market. Nevertheless, China’s government is Source:UK Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), Mercer. We expect Japan’s economic growth to be modestly abovetrend in 2026. Private consumption should continue toaccelerate moderately as real and nominal wage growthincreases. Business surveys and commentary suggest thatbus