光模块——持续的人工智能驱动超额表现

Optical transceivers–sustainedAI-driven ahead 2025 has proven a standout year for optical transceiver suppliers with high AI-exposures, with key suppliers posting stellar revenue growth and materialmargin expansion. We expect this outperformance to persist through 2026 andbeyond, underpinned by an unabated AI infrastructure investment cycle and asustained mix shift to higher-value solutions.We reiterate the sector as one ofour top picks.Reiterate our BUY rating on Innolight(300308 CH, BUY,TP: China Semiconductors Sector Lily YANG, Ph.D(852) 3916 3716lilyyang@cmbi.com.hk Kevin ZHANG(852) 3761 8727kevinzhang@cmbi.com.hk AI infrastructure capex continues to be a powerful tailwind.The USBig Four hyperscalers(Google, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon)spent US$230bnin 2024 (+55% YoY) and US$259bn in9M25 (+65% YoY), with 2025 full-year capex projected to reach US$367bn (+59% YoY). 2026 capex growthisexpected at 35%YoY to US$495bn(Bloomberg consensus).Hyperscalers havereaffirmed aggressive spending plans. While 2027growth appears to be more moderateat a current 14% YoY estimate,wesee upside potentials ahead, mirroring the significant upward revisionsseen for 2025 (33% YoY capex growth for 2025 estimatedin Jan by Jiahao Jiang(852) 39163739JiangJiahao@cmbi.com.hk Related reports: 1.Semiconductors-Nvidia: Solid 3Qresults;4Qguidanceshouldalleviate AI bubble concerns(link)2.Semiconductors-Thematicinvesting and megatrends: 1H25 AIdemandcheck;Compute demandcontinues to grow(link)3.Semiconductors-Solid 2Q resultsforBroadcom;eyesonthedevelopment of AI inference(link)4.Semiconductors-Nvidia’s 1Q beatandsolid 2Q guidance confirm AIdemand remains resilient(link)5.Semiconductors-Thematicinvesting and megatrends: China’shyperscalersaccelerate AI infra.buildoutamid strengthening clouddemand(link)6.Semiconductors-Thematicinvesting and megatrends: Resilient1Q25capex among hyperscalers(link)7.Semiconductors-Thematicinvesting and megatrends: Alibaba’sbold capex hike a boost to domestic this super-cycle.Leading optical transceiver vendors have capitalized on the AI wavewith robust financial performance.Coherent(COHR US, NR), Innolight,andEoptolink(300502 CH,NR)posted strong revenue growth(15%/120%/175% in 2024 and 19%/44%/ 221% in 9M25, respectively),whiletheirgrossmarginsalsoexpandedmeaningfully(+2.5ppts/+9.2ppts/+5.4ppts from 3Q24 to 3Q25),driven by AI-ledupgrades to 800G/1.6T. For 2026,we expectthestrong performanceto Supply-demand dynamics remaintight,particularly for key componentslikeelectro-absorption modulated laser(EML)chips(demand faroutstripping supplyperLumentum(LITE US, NR)).TheEMLindustryisexpanding capacity aggressively (i.e., 40% unit capacity increase fromLumentum).In addition, SiPhotech (does not require EML)penetration isaccelerating, helping alleviate the EML bottleneck.We forecast SiPho'ssharewill exceed 50%by 2026(vs.10%/33%in 2018/2024 perLightCounting). We estimate 800G and 1.6T shipments will reach49mn AI-driven optical transceiver suppliers:sustained 2025 has proven a standout year for optical transceiver and component supplierswith high AI-exposures.Coherent, Innolight and Eoptolink have delivered remarkablerevenue growth (19%/44%/221% YoY in 9M25) and meaningfulgrossmargin expansion(+2.5ppts/+9.2ppts/+5.4pptsfrom 3Q24 to 3Q25).Looking ahead to 2026,theopticaltransceiver sector remainsourtop pick, as expanding AI infrastructure capex is set to Tailwind from surging AIinfrastructure capex In recent years, major overseas hyperscalers have significantly scaled up their AIinfrastructureinvestments,providing a robust tailwind for optical transceivervendors.The US Big Four (GOOG/MSFT/META/AMZN) collectively spent US$230bn on Looking forward, Bloombergconsensusprojectsthe Big Four’s4Q25 capexto grow10% sequentially to US$108bn, pushing full-year capex to US$367bn, a substantial59% YoY rise.This growth trajectory has been validated bythehyperscalers’guidance:Google raised its CY25E capex forecast to US$91–93bn (up from the previous US$85bn), For 2026, Bloomberg consensus now anticipates 35% YoY capex growth for the BigFour, reaching US$495bn.“FOMO”(fear of missing out)continues to drive theAI armsrace: Microsoft reaffirmed that capex will keep growing despite earlier expectations ofmoderation;Google stated 2026 capex will be “significantly higher”;Meta emphasized Source: Companydata, Bloomberg consensus, CMBIGM Source: Companydata, Bloomberg consensus, CMBIGM While the investment momentum is expected to persist in 2026,investors haveexpressed concerns about 2027 growth.CurrentBloomberg consensus forecasts a14% YoY increase for the Big Four’s capex for 2027, far less striking than the growthseen in 2024 and 2025.However, we see room for upward revisions.For context, theconsensus estimate for the Big Four’s 2025 capex growth was 33% in January, which has Demandfor optical transceiversis also broadening beyond the Big Four. Other cloudproviders, enterprises, and sovereignentities are emerging as significa