对政策小组的贡献：转型中的世界：我们准备好适应了吗？

IMF 26thJacques Polak AnnualResearch Conference 6 November 2025 RubricThe euro area and the world economy •Structural trends: shifting role of euro area in global economy•Global configuration of trade policies, industrial policies, FDI policies•“Local” adjustments; major adjustments (ECB OP365) Diagnostics •Export and import dynamics; current account; exchange rate The policy agenda •Draghi/Letta; pro-growth policies; fiscal•Savings and investments union; banking union; digital euro•Monetary policy and structural trends: 2025 update of monetary policy strategy RubricGDP and exports across different projection exercises RubricEuro area export similarity with China RubricEvidence indicates diminishing import intensity of China’s economic activity RubricEuro: exchange rate patterns Real EUR vs CNY, JPY andKRW USD/EUR and NEER(left-hand scale: USD per EUR; right-hand Sources: ECB and ECB staff calculations.Notes: Range and average calculated from 2014 to present. Average since2014 normalised to 100. Rates are quoted such that lower means weaker.CNY real effective exchange rate (REER) is calculated using CPI. The latest RubricEuro area current account RubricThe role of asset markets: the European context •Draghi and Letta reports: there is much scope to boost the aggregategrowth rate of the European economy, including by deepening theSingle Market •Faster growth implies an increase in asset supply: needs a matchingincrease in asset demand •Rising public debt also boosts asset supply: needs an additionalincrease in asset demand •Boost household asset demand; boost foreign investor demand forEuropean assets •Savings and investments union; banking union; EU-level bond supply;international role of the euro: in combination with pro-growth economic •Sustainable improvement in economic performance•Stronger wealth accumulation by European households•Greater resilience to country-level shocks •Encouraging retail participation (SIAs; financial literacy)•Developing supplementary pensions (auto enrolment; IORP Directive; PEPPRegulation)•Market integration and supervision•Promoting equity investment by institutional investors; EuVECA Regulation Background slides RubricVenture capital markets RubricHousehold financial assets RubricHousehold savings RubricAsset holdings broken down by instrument Household holdings of financial assets(percentages of total financial assets in Q2 2025 and Q4 2000) RubricCapital gains RubricHousehold holdings of non-financial assets Euro area and United States non-financialassets RubricFinancial assets of investment funds, insurance corporations and pension fundscorporations and pension funds RubricNet portfolio investment in debt securities RubricEuro-denominated bonds by non-euro area corporations S&P 500 returns(index, 1 January 2015 = 100) RubricEuro area external balance RubricEuro area trade balance RubricEuro are exchange rate and imports