董事总经理的全球政策议程，2025年秋季：驾驭转型中的世界

temporary effects fade, activity is slowing, and labor markets aresoftening. Global growth is now expected to slow to 3.2 percentthis year, from 3.3 percent in 2024. Inflation is expected to declineglobally with notable variation across countries. Previously mutedpass-through of tariffs to U.S. consumer prices appears increasinglylikely. In contrast, much of the rest of the world is facing an adversedemand shock that is keeping inflation subdued. NAVIGATING AWORLD IN TRANSITION The global economy is undergoing a profound transformation,with major changes in the international frameworks that have longunderpinned it. Sweeping policy shifts across many areas arereshaping economies and testing their resilience. As countriesnavigate this transformation, the priorities are to preservemacroeconomic and financial stability and to work together toensure the smooth functioning of the global economy. The IMFstands ready to support them through tailored policy advice,capacity development, and financing when necessary. Guided byour medium-term direction outlined in theSpring 2025 Global PolicyAgenda,we are modernizing our policy frameworks and internalprocesses to remain an agile and focused institution that responds tothe evolving needs of our members, now and over the medium andlong term. Uncertainty has elevated risks to the outlook.Further rise inprotectionism and labor supply disruptions could weigh on growth.Financial sector risks have risen fueled by the rapid expansion ofnonbanks and digital currencies. Disappointing productivity gainsfrom AI and disruptions in private credit markets could triggeran abrupt repricing of assets, with potential financial stabilityimplications. Geopolitical risks and domestic polarization arerising, highlighting the need for a risk-management approach topolicymaking. Ongoing wars and armed conflicts continue to imposea heavy human and economic toll, further amplifying uncertainty.On the upside, potential catalysts include trade deals, renewedreform momentum, faster AI-driven productivity gains, andbreakthroughs in conflict resolution. THE CONTEXT Excess external imbalances pose a risk to the stability of theInternational Monetary System (IMS) and should be addressed.The2025 External Sector Report(ESR) shows that global currentaccount balances widened by 0.6 percentage points of worldGDP last year, with two-thirds of the increase arising from excesssurpluses—mainly in China and the euro area—and excess deficits,primarily in the United States. Persistent and concentratedexcess imbalances are costly domestically and globally and, if leftunattended, increase the risk of a disorderly unwinding. They distortresource allocation, make countries reliant on unsustainable capitalflows, and fuel financial market excesses that undermine economicand financial stability. Excess imbalances can also create sectoraldislocations and raise protectionist sentiment, with harmful effectson the global economy. The global economy is undergoing a profound transformation,and uncertainty runs high.Major policy shifts across severalcountries—spanning trade, digital money, immigration, andspending priorities, including national security and foreign aid—arereconfiguring global markets and redefining policy frameworks.These changes bring prolonged uncertainty and associated risks butalso present opportunities, including to build more resilient supplychains and diversify trade relationships. Navigating this transitionwill hinge on the strength and integrity of core national economicinstitutions, which are critical for effective and credible policymaking. The global economy has been resilient thus far, but strains areemerging.The front-loading of investment and trade ahead of highertariffs has boosted global growth in the first half of the year. As these This context also underscores the urgency of tackling thelow-growth high-debt challenge.Withpublic debt near recordhighs, many countries face depleted fiscal space even as theyconfront pressing spending needs, from population aging torising national security demands. In some advanced countries andemerging economies, fiscal vulnerabilities heighten the riskof sudden disruptions in sovereign debt markets—with potentialfinancial stability implications and cross-border spillovers. Pressuresare acute in developing countries experiencing drops in foreign aidand in vulnerable economies where debt service is crowding outpriority spending and stifling development. A fragmenting globallandscape and persistent uncertainty are weighing on alreadyweakmedium-term growth prospects, held back by flagging productivityin many countries, chronic underinvestment, and slowing laborforce growth. Effective policies, supported by structural reformsand investment and mindful of political constraints, will be crucial toharnesstransformative forces—digital technologies, demographicshifts, and climate transitions—while mitigating their risks. Through bilateral surveillance and our pro