健康老龄化对劳动力市场的影响（英）

The Labor MarketImplications of Healthy Bertrand Gruss, Eric Huang, Andresa Lagerborg, DiaaNoureldin, Galip Kemal Ozhan WP/25/229 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are IMF Working Paper Research Department The Labor Market Implications of Healthy AgingPrepared byBertrand Gruss, Eric Huang, Andresa Lagerborg, Diaa Noureldin, Galip Kemal Ozhan Authorized for distribution by Deniz Igan IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the ABSTRACT:This paper provides new cross-country evidence on healthy aging—the extent to which populationsage in better health across successive birth cohorts—and how this shapes labor market outcomes for older workers.Using harmonized microdata on individuals aged50 and above in 41 countries over 2000-22, we document thatphysical, cognitive, and mental health have improved systematically across cohorts. To estimate causal effects, weinstrument individual health with chronic disease incidence. Better health increases labor supply along both the RECOMMENDED CITATION:Gruss, B., E. Huang, A. Lagerborg, D. Noureldin, G. K. Ozhan, 2025. “TheLabor Market Implications of Healthy Aging”. IMF Working Paper, International Monetary Fund, Washington, WORKING PAPERS The Labor Market Implications of Prepared byBertrand Gruss, Eric Huang, Andresa Lagerborg, DiaaNoureldin, andGalip Kemal Ozhan1 Contents 1. Introduction.....................................................................................................................................................42. Data..................................................................................................................................................................73. Methodology..................................................................................................................................................114. Healthy Aging Trends...................................................................................................................................135. Impact of Health on Labor Markets.............................................................................................................195. The Cumulative Impact of Health Improvements on Labor Market Outcomes: The Role of OlderIndividuals’ Cognitive Health...........................................................................................................................277. Additional Robustness Analysis.................................................................................................................328. Concluding Remarks....................................................................................................................................35Appendix A. Data Sources and Harmonization..............................................................................................36Appendix B. Section 4—Healthy Aging Trends.............................................................................................38Appendix C. Section 5—Impact of Health on Labor Market Outcomes.......................................................40Appendix D. Section 7—Additional Robustness Analysis............................................................................45References.........................................................................................................................................................50 FIGURES Figure 1. Life Expectancy and Healthy Life Expectancy Trends...........................................................................4Figure 2. Data Sample..........................................................................................................................................8Figure 3. Main Health Indicators...........................................................................................................................9Figure 4. Health Trends by Cohort......................................................................................................................14Figure 5. Over 2000-22, Age 70 became the new..............................................................................................16Figure 6. Box Plot of Country-Specific Healthy Aging Trends.............................................................................19Figure 7. Effect of 1-Decade Health Improvements on Labor Market Outcomes...............................................27 Table 1. Country Sample......................................................................................................................................7Table 2. OLS Regressions: Determinants of Health...........................................................................................14Table 3. Mundlak Regressions