中东和北非干旱对劳动力市场的影响（英）

11191 The Labor Market Effects of Droughtsin MENA Nelly ElmallakhDiego FaurèsRoberta GattiAsif M. Islam Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan RegionOffice of the Chief EconomistAugust 2025 Policy Research Working Paper11191 Abstract percent reduction in weekly hours worked for both menand women. The results are driven by urban areas, high-lighting that the labor market effects of extreme weatherevents may extend beyond their impact on the agriculturesector and rural areas. However, extreme weather events donegatively affect a subset of the rural population—youngwomen—by increasing unemployment. The findings pro-vide crucial empirical evidence on the socioeconomic costsof climate variability, underscoring the need for targetedpolicies that address these impacts in urban settings. This paper examines the impact of negative precipitationshocks (droughts) on labor markets in the Middle East andNorth Africa region. Using Labor Force Survey data acrossfive countries over approximately 25 years and matchedwith fifth generation of atmospheric reanalysis produced bythe European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecastshourly climate data, the study finds that droughts affectlabor market outcomes at both the extensive and intensivemargins. A negative precipitation shock is associated witha 1 percentage point increase in unemployment and a 4.4 This paper is a product of the Office of the Chief Economist, Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan Region.It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to developmentpolicy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at nelmallakh@worldbank.org, dfaures@worldbank.org, rgatti@worldbank.org,and aislam@worldbank.org. The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about developmentissues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry thenames of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely thoseof the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank andits affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. The Labor Market Effects of Droughts in MENA Nelly Elmallakh, Diego Faurès, Roberta Gatti, and Asif M. Islam1 1.Introduction Climate change poses one of the most significant challenges of our time, with far-reachingimplications for economic stability, social cohesion, and human well-being. It is characterized bythe intensification of extreme weather events, shifts in precipitation patterns, rising temperatures,and escalating climate variability (Lee et al., 2023). A growing body of literature highlights theprofound economic costs associated with these changes, spanning reduced agricultural yields,heightened mortality rates, diminished labor productivity, migration pressures, and increased civilconflict (Dell et al., 2012; Schlenker et al., 2005; Burke et al., 2015; Graff Zivin and Neidell, 2014;Deschênes and Greenstone, 2011; Feng et al., 2010; Hsiang et al., 2011). The scale of these impactsisparticularly severe in developing regions,where limited adaptive capacity exacerbatesvulnerabilities to climate shocks (Oppenheimer, 2013; Hallegatte et al., 2018). An important yet relatively underexplored dimension of climate change is its impact on labormarkets, particularly in regions already grappling with socioeconomic vulnerabilities. The MiddleEast and North Africa (MENA) region, often described as a climate hotspot, faces uniquechallengesdue to its heavy dependence on climate-sensitive sectors,limited institutionalcapacities, and high rates of unemployment (Cramer et al., 2018; Blunden and Arndt, 2020).Precipitationshocks,in particular,have cascading effects that extend beyond immediateagricultural productivity losses, disrupting economic activity, household incomes, and labordemand. Yet, despite the growing urgency to understand these dynamics, there is a notable gap inthe literature on how extreme weather events, such as droughts and sudden rainfall shortages,translate into labor market disruptions in MENA countries. This paper addresses this gap byexamining the relationship between negative precipitation shocks and labor market outcomes inthe MENA region. By focusing on a critical yet understudied nexus, this analysis aims to provideinsights into the socioeconomic costs of climate change and inform policy responses that enhanceresilience in vulnerable communities. From a conceptual standpoint, precipitation shocks can disrupt labor markets through their impacton agricultural productiv