中东和北非地区儿童早期接触干旱的长期影响（英）

11190 Long-Term Effects of Early ChildhoodExposure to Droughts in MENA Nelly ElmallakhRoberta GattiAsif M. IslamMennatallah Emam Mousa Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan RegionOffice of the Chief EconomistAugust 2025 Policy Research Working Paper11190 Abstract This paper examines the long-term impacts of early-lifedrought exposure on the human capital and socioeco-nomic outcomes of women born in the Arab Republic ofEgypt, Jordan, and Morocco across more than five decades.Using a pooled cross-section of 13 rounds of the Demo-graphic and Health Surveys, the paper demonstrates thatearly childhood drought exposure significantly hindersfemale education, leading to lower educational attainment,increased illiteracy, and reduced likelihood of secondaryschool completion. These adverse effects are concentratedamong women from rural households, suggesting that drought impacts operate through disruptions to agriculturallivelihoods. Furthermore, the paper finds that early-lifedrought exposure is associated with reduced adult height,an increased likelihood of early marriage, and continuedengagement in agricultural labor. This study provides novelevidence on the enduring human costs of climate variabilityin the Middle East and North Africa region, highlightingthe urgent need for targeted policy interventions to mitigatethe socioeconomic vulnerabilities of rural women in theface of climate change. The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about developmentissues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry thenames of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely thoseof the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank andits affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. Long-Term Effects of Early Childhood Exposure toDroughts in MENA Nelly Elmallakh, Roberta Gatti, Asif M. Islam, and Mennatallah Emam Mousa1 1.Introduction Climate change and weather variability have profound implications for human development,particularly in regions where livelihoods are closely tied to agriculture. Recent studies underscorethe long-term effects of extreme weather events on human capital and socioeconomic outcomes(see for instance, Dell et al., 2012, Deschênes, 2014, Deschênes and Greenstone, 2011, Carleton,and Hsiang, 2016). These effects are especially pronounced in developing regions, where foodinsecurity and vulnerability to climate shocks exacerbate disparities in health, education, andeconomic mobility (Hyland and Russ, 2019; Le and Nguyen, 2023; Maccini and Yang, 2009). Awell-established body of literature highlights that prenatal events can have life-longconsequences (Almond et al., 2018). These studies highlight how early life stressors, includingenvironmental factors, can have enduring impacts on human development. For instance, the “fetalorigins” hypothesis suggests that in-utero conditions significantly shape long-term health andsocioeconomic outcomes. Indeed, studies have consistently shown that economic, environmental,or disease-related stress during gestation can adversely affect physical and cognitive development,as well as educational achievement, later in life (Almond and Currie, 2011; Almond andMazumder, 2011; Almond et al., 2015, Aizer, 2011; Aizer et al., 2016; Currie and Rossin-Slater,2013). Expanding on this literature, several papers have considered shocks experienced in earlychildhood, as opposed to only shocks occurring during the prenatal period. While the beginningand ending periods of “early childhood” are naturally less well-defined compared to the period inutero (Almond et al., 2018), there is an emerging consensus that exposure to shocks during earlychildhood can adversely affect adult outcomes. For instance, Arceo et al. (2016) find significanteffects of exposure to pollution on both neonatal and infant deaths from respiratory andcardiovascular disease in Mexico, exploiting data for 48 municipalities across Mexico City.Similarly, Knittel et al. (2016), who investigate the effects of ambient air pollution fromautomobile congestion in California, show that particulate matter has large effects on infantmortality rates. Focusing on the effects of high temperatures and using nationally representativedata from Mexico, Agüero (2014) shows that high temperatures during early childhood are linkedto lower adult height and that the effects are more pronounced in poorer districts. Hoddinott andKinsey (2001) show that in the aftermath of a drought in rural Zimbabwe, children aged 12 to 24months lost 1.5 to 2 cm in height. These studies, when considered alongside the growing evidence on the s