阿鲁巴的人口统计及其对劳动力市场和产出的潜在影响（英）

Aruba’s Demographicsand Its Potential Impacton the Labor Market and Olga Bespalova, Justin Matz, Toyosi Oyo, and Marco Arena SIP/2025/156 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff asbackground documentation for periodic consultations withmember countries.It is based on the information available at 2023DEC IMFSelected IssuesPaper Western Hemisphere Department Aruba’s Demographics and Its Potential Impact on the Labor Market and OutputPrepared byOlga Bespalova, Justin Matz, Toyosi Oyo, and Marco Arena* Authorized for distribution by Christoph Duenwald IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it was ABSTRACT:Historically, Aruba benefited from population growth that expanded the labor force, therebyboosting productivity and fostering economic growth—a phenomenon known as the “demographic dividend”.However, declining fertility rates and a rapidly aging population are altering the balance between theeconomically active working population and those dependent on them. This study analyzes recent RECOMMENDED CITATION:Bespalova, Olga, Justin Matz, Toyosi Oyo, and Marco Arena, 2025. “Aruba’sDemographics and Its Potential Impact on the Labor Market and Output.”IMF Selected Issues Paper SELECTED ISSUESPAPERS Aruba’s Demographics and ItsPotential Impact on the Labor Kingdom of the Netherlands—Aruba Prepared byOlga Bespalova, Justin Matz, Toyosi Oyo, and Marco Arena CONTENTS Aruba’s Demographics and its Potential Impact on the Labor Market and Output.......................2 A. Stylized Facts on Demographics Trends in Aruba....................................................................2B. Stylized Facts on Labor Markets in Aruba................................................................................7C. Impact of Demographic Dynamics on the Labor Market and Output......................................11D. Policy Options.........................................................................................................................15 FIGURE 1.Impacts of Potential Demographics Changes.........................................................................14 1.Data Sources and Metholological Sources.............................................................................17 References..................................................................................................................................18 Aruba’s Demographics and its Potential Impacton the Labor Market and Output2 Historically, Aruba benefited from population growth that expanded the labor force, thereby boostingproductivity and fostering economic growth—a phenomenon known as the “demographic dividend”. However,declining fertility rates and a rapidly aging population are altering the balance between theeconomically active I.Stylized Facts on Demographics Trendsin Aruba 1.Although Aruba has experienced fluctuations in birth rates in the past, a slow and steadydecline in fertility rates has been evident, particularly, since 2017. In fact, the birth rate, measured as thenumber of births per 1,000 people, reached a historic low of 759in 2024.3.Additionally,Aruba’sthe 2.Aruba’s population growth has significantlyslowed in recent years.Declining fertility ratescoupled with lower inward migration have notablyreduced population growth. While the island'spopulation has nearly doubledsince 1960, most of that population increased by nearly 40 percent from 1990 to 2000. This growth rate slowed to 13 percent in theearly 2000s and further declined to 7.8percent in the 2010s. Since the onset of the pandemic, populationgrowth has stagnated, as birth rates have declined to historic lows and inward migration has diminished. 3.As of end-December 2024,39.5percent of Aruba’s population was foreign-born.As of 2024,foreign-born women represented approximately 56percent of the migrant population.Foreign-born KINGDOM OF THE NETHERLANDS-ARUBA Among all migrants, working-age females (ages 15-64) comprise 46 percent, while working-age males accountfor 36 percent, with children (5 percent) and overaged 65 (14 percent) making up the rest. By end-2024, 22percent of inward migrants either returned to Aruba orcamefrom other Dutch Caribbeanislands. Theremaining migrants were foreign-born,mainly inVenezuela (19.7percent), Colombia (19.6percent), and the 4.The evolution of population pyramidsillustrates the shifts in age distribution. In 1960,the population distribution resembled a classicpyramid; however, by the 1990s, it had transformedinto a bimodal distribution, reflecting the baby boom approaching or entering retirement age, presents critical challenges for Aruba’s economydue toa shrinkinglabor force and increased demand for healthcareand social protectionstemming from an aging population. 5.Aruba’saging increases dependence on the working age population to support the healthc