老龄化和人工智能对日本劳动力市场的影响：挑战与机遇

The Impact of Aging andAI on Japan's LaborMarket: Challenges andOpportunities Kohei Asao, Haruki Seitani, Ara Stepanyan, and TengTeng Xu WP/25/184 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers arethose of the author(s) and do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board,or IMF management. 2025SEP IMF Working Paper Asia and Pacific Department The Impact of Aging and AI on Japan's Labor Market: Challenges and OpportunitiesPrepared by Kohei Asao, Haruki Seitani, Ara Stepanyan, and TengTeng Xu* Authorized for distribution by Nada ChoueiriSeptember2025 IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of theauthor(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT:This paper explores the complex roles of demographic changes and technological innovation inshaping Japan's labor market. We use regression analysis to assess the impact of population aging on laborproductivity and shortages. Our findings indicate that the aging workforce contributes to labor shortages andpotentially weighs on labor productivity. We also investigate occupational level data to identify thecomplementarity and substitutability of AI in occupational tasks as well as skill transferability. Our researchreveals that Japanese workers face lower exposure to AI compared to their counterparts in other advancedeconomies, thereby constraining AI's potential to mitigate labor shortages. Furthermore, the disparities in skillrequirements across occupations with different AI exposures highlight the importance of facilitating labormobility from displaced jobs to those in demand. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Asao, K., Seitani, H., Stepanyan, A., and Xu, T. 2025. The Impact of Aging andAI on Japan's Labor Market: Challenges and Opportunities. IMF Working Paper WP/25/184. Washington D.C. The Impact of Aging and AI onJapan's Labor Market: Challengesand Opportunities Prepared by Kohei Asao, Haruki Seitani, Ara Stepanyan, and TengTengXu1 Contents I.Introduction ..................................................................................................................................................3II.Stylized Facts.........................................................................................................................................3III.Methodology ..........................................................................................................................................7A. REGRESSION ANALYSIS..................................................................................................................7B. AI AND LABOR MARKET ...................................................................................................................8C. SKILL TRANSFERABILITY ................................................................................................................9References .........................................................................................................................................................16 I.Introduction Japan’s economy is undergoing a profound transformation, primarily driven by the aging population, ademographic trend that is projected to persist in the coming years.Japan has the highest share of peopleaged 65 and older in population, which is expected to increase further.Concurrently, advancements intechnology, particularly in artificial intelligence (AI), are poised to reshape the labor market landscape withcertain roles rendered obsolete while the demand for new skills is on the rise. Japan has been at the forefrontin automation as a way to sustain productivity amid demographic headwinds. This paper aims to investigate the intricate interplay between the population aging and AI in influencingJapan's labor market.We employ regression analysis to examine the impact of aging on labor productivityand labor shortages. Utilizing occupational level data, we look into complementarity and substitutability of AIwith human-performed tasks and construct a skill distance index to assess the transferability of skills acrossvarious occupations. Our findings reveal that population aging is contributing to the acute labor shortages faced byJapanese firms and weighing on labor productivity.Our analysis implies that sectors more affected bypopulation aging tend to report higher labor shortages 5 years later. Furthermore, we find that aging in the laborforce is negatively associated with labor productivity growth in Japan. Our analysis also highlights the limited role for AI to address Japan’s labor shortages and importanceof facilitating labor mobility to capitalize on the benefits brought about by AI.We document thatJapanese workers have a lower exposu