人工智能：经济影响、机遇、挑战、对政策的启示

Wouter Simons, Alessandro Turriniand Lara Vivian DISCUSSION PAPER 210 | JULY 2024 EUROPEAN ECONOMY EuropeanEconomy Discussion Papers are written by the staff of the European Commission’sDirectorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, or by experts working in association with them, toinform discussion on economic policy and to stimulate debate. DISCLAIMER The views expressed in this document are solely those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent theofficial views of the European Commission. Authorised for publication by Géraldine Mahieu, Director for Investment, Growth and Structural Reforms. LEGAL NOTICE Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the European Commission is responsiblefor the use that might be made of the information contained in this publication. This paper exists in English only and can be downloaded fromhttps://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/ecfin-publications_en. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2024 © European Union, 2024Non-commercial reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged. For any use or reproductionof material that is not under the EU copyright, permission must be sought directly from the copyright holders. CREDITCover photography: © iStock.com/g-stockstudio European Commission Artificial Intelligence:EconomicImpact,Opportunities,Challenges,Implications forPolicy Wouter Simons,Alessandro Turrini,Lara Vivian Abstract Thisdiscussion paper presents the key features of Artificial Intelligence (AI), highlighting the maindifferences with respect to previous IT and digital technologies.Itpresents the most relevant facts aboutAI diffusion across EU countries, and discusses the main economic implications, focusing especially on itsimpact on productivity and labour markets. While AI presents a formidable opportunity, it also entailsmajorchallenges, with implications for policy. This paperfocuses on policies to remove bottlenecks to AIdevelopment and adoption, regulatory policies, competition policy, policies to deal with labour marketand distributive implications. JEL Classification:O30,J20, J30, O40. Keywords: artificial intelligence, labour markets, productivity. Acknowledgements:We thank MajaŠamanović, Matteo Salto, Martin Ulbrich,Andrea Glorioso, SvenSchade, Luca Tangi, Marina Manzoni,IljaRausch,CristianBrasoveanuand Cristina Volpinfor their usefulcomments. All remaining errors are ours. Contact:Vivian Lara,lara.vivian1@ec.europa.eu,Simons Wouter,wouter.simons@ec.europa.eu,AlessandroTurrini,alessandro.turrini@ec.europa.eu,European Commission,Directorate-General forEconomic andFinancial Affairs. CONTENTS Introduction........................................................................................................................................................................................... 2.1.AI: main definitions..................................................................................................................................................................62.2.AI development and adoption..........................................................................................................................................8 3.Economic implications of AI...............................................................................................................................................................14 3.1.Productivity......................................................................................................................................................................143.2.Labour markets.............................................................................................................................................................17 4.Policy approaches to deal with Ai..................................................................................................................................................18 4.1.Removing bottlenecks to adoption....................................................................................................................184.2.Regulating AI: transparency, intellectual property, privacy, human rights, security............204.3.Issuesfor competition policy................................................................................................................................224.4.Dealing with the impact on labour markets and distribution............................................................23 Conclusion........................................................................................................................................................................................................25 REFERENCES................................................................................................................................................................................................27 FIGURES Figure 2.2.1 Share (%) of enterprises (with at lea