月度报告——2025年10月

Vol. 77 No 10 Table of Content Commentary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 EU finances: Member States’ financial relationships with the EU in 2024and the multiannual financial framework for 2028-34. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 1 Review of payment flows in 2024. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18Methodological information on determining net contributions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201.1 The EU budget for 2024 (excluding NGEU). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221.2 NGEU in 2024. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 251.3 Net contributions in 2024. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 282 Outlook for the next multiannual financial framework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 302.1 More funds needed to service debt for NGEU loans. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30Development of deficits and debt at the EU level. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 322.2 New focal points for spending. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 362.3 Changes to the funding structure. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 382.4 National reform plans. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 412.5 New leeway for joint debt. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42List of references.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 Effects of global uncertainty on international portfolio flows. . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 1 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 472 What is uncertainty and how can it be measured?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 493 How can uncertainty affect the economy?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 514 Effects of uncertainty on portfolio flows. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53Empirical measurement of the impact of uncertainty on portfolio flows. . . . . 54 List of references.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 State government finances in 2024: situation worsens, large deficit forlocal governments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 621 Federal state aggregate: large structural deficit at local government level. 652 The situation from state to state: big differences in financial situation. . . . . 712.1 Unadjusted deficits. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 712.2 Partially adjusted structural deficits. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 712.3 Revenue. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 732.4 Debt and interest burdens. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 743 State government debt brakes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 783.1 Significant differences in cyclical adjustment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 783.2 Emergency borrowing repaid in spite of deficits. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80Development of emergency borrowing in individual states in the 2024financial year. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 824 Outlook: Make targeted use of new state government fiscal leeway,increase transparency. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 854.1 Deficit developments in 2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85Local government finances in the first half of 2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 864.2 Use new scope for borrowing cautiously amid high debt levels. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 874.3 Use funds from the Infrastructure and Climate Neutrality Fund in a targetedmanner. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 884.4 State governments bear responsibility for local government finances;financial reform advisable. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 904.5 Increase transparency of state gov