查看2024年11月爱立信移动报告

November 2024 Letter from the publisher An industry poised for the next wave of mobile On the forecast side, we see continuedmobile network traffic growth but at aslower rate. Despite the deceleration,mobile network data traffic is expectedto nearly triple by 2030 compared tocurrent levels. A shift to high-performingand programmable networks, enabledby openness and cloud, will allow serviceproviders to create and charge for offeringsbased on value delivered, and not only onvolume of data. An exciting future awaits ascommunications service providers aregearing up for a mobile industrytransformation. Leading service providersare deploying and upgrading 5Gstandalone (SA) networks as part of theirjourney to enabling service differentiationand exploring new performance-basedbusiness models. Already, suchdeployments have enabled those serviceproviders to introduce new differentiatedservice offerings and tap into growthopportunities beyond traditionalbest-effort services. In this edition, we also explore how theincreasing use of generative AI in mobiledevices, which enables at-scale,hyper-personalized content creation,may impact mobile data traffic volumesand characteristics going forward. This edition also investigates theapplication of cellular technology forbringing predictable and reliableconnectivity to the digital airspace,unlocking new possibilities formission-critical communications, droneoperations and management such asbeyond visual line of sight flights. To fully realize the potential of 5G,it is essential to continue deploying5G SA and to further densify mid-bandsites. Although some 320 service providershave launched commercial 5G services,less than 20 percent of these are 5G SAlaunches and deployments. Additionally,only around 30 percent of all sites globally,outside of mainland China, have beenupgraded to 5G mid-band. The innovation journey has alreadystarted. In this edition of the EricssonMobility Report, we take a closer look at twoleading service providers that are currentlyleveraging network slicing capabilitieswithin commercial networks to address awider range of use cases that benefit fromdifferentiated connectivity services. I trust that you will find this reportengaging, and that it offers valuableinsights as we navigate the evolvinglandscape of 5G. Fredrik JejdlingExecutive Vice President and Head of Business Area Networks Contents Forecasts Articles 045G subscriptions to overtake4G in 202705GenAI is steering the futureof smartphones065G subscriptions on therise across regions08Quarterly mobile networkdata traffic update095G will carry 80 percent of mobiledata traffic globally in 2030115G mid-band populationcoverage growing12Continued global FWA momentum 15Unlocking the capabilities of 5G SA166G: Co-creating a cyber-physical world18Impact of GenAI on mobilenetwork traffic20T-Mobile takes network slicing frompilots to real-world scenarios23Differentiated connectivityis key for monetizing 5G24Premium FWA services enabledin Finland with 5G SA26Empowering enterprises with 5G28A multi-NR carrier strategyfor best performance315G RedCap – advancing IoTbeyond 4G32Digital airspace: Enablingmission-critical communicationin the skies35ICT’s carbon footprint continuingto decrease Executive Editor:Peter JonssonProject Sponsor:Patrik CerwallProject Manager:Anette LundvallForecasts:David von KochWriter Editor:Steven Davis Co-writers: Egil Gronstad (T-Mobile),Karri Kuoppamaki (T-Mobile),Tiina Höckert (Elisa),Aleksi Tuominen (Elisa),Nasser Alyousef (stc) Contributors: Matt Addicks, Jari Arkko, Robert Balconi,Belgin Caglar, Mischa Dohler, Lisa Englund,Hans Hammar, Julian Hurtado, Fadhel Isa,Mattias Johansson, Per Lindberg, Peter Linder,Nina Lövehagen, Johan Lundsjö,Marcelo Malizia, Jens Malmodin, Ignacio Más,Robert McCrorey, Kapil Mittal,Markku Moilanen, Jukka Möykkynen,Daniel Paska, Ove Persson, Praven Reddy,Mikko Saarisalo, Marika Stålnacke,Petteri Viitanen, John Yazlle, Bo Zhong 36Methodology37Glossary38Global and regional key figures Forecasts 5G subscriptions are growing, with one-quarter of all mobile subscriptions projectedto be 5G by the end of 2024. This momentum is set to continue through the forecastperiod, with 5G expected to overtake 4G as the dominant mobile access technologyby subscription for the first time in 2027. Although 5G population coverage isgrowing globally, 5G mid-band is only deployed in around 30 percent of all sitesglobally outside of mainland China; further densification of mid-band sites anddeployments of 5G standalone (SA) are required to harness the full potential of 5G. Global 5G subscriptions will reach around6.3 billion in 2030, equaling 67 percentof total mobile subscriptions. 5G is expected to carry 80 percentof the total mobile data traffic bythe end of 2030. Following on from the launchesof 5G SA and 5G Advanced, 6G isexpected to arrive during 2030. By the end of 2024, 5G mid-bandpopulation coverage outside of mainlandChina is expected to re