行业周报：天然橡胶

GTJA Futures Research InstituteGAOLinlin（Analyst）Advisory Code : Z0002332Date : 2025/11/2 CONTENTS Supply & Demand Data Market Trends Summary Industry News Summary Supply Industry News Demand Other Spreads Inventory Price of Substitutes Capital Trends Industry News Industry News 1.【Côte d'Ivoire's Rubber Exports Up 14.8% YoY in First Three Quarters】Latest data shows that in the first three quarters of 2025, Côted'Ivoire's cumulative rubber exports reached 1.22 million tons, representing a 14.8% increase compared to 1.06 million tons in the same periodof 2024. Looking solely at the September data, exports rose by 17.7% year-on-year (YoY) and 16.1% month-on-month (MoM). Côte d'Ivoire is amajor natural rubber producer in Africa. In recent years, the country's rubber exports have increased year after year, as farmers, driven by stableprofits, have shifted their crop cultivation from cocoa to rubber. 2.【Thailand's Total Exports of Natural Rubber and Mixed Rubber Up 5.8% YoY in First Three Quarters】Latest data reveals that in the firstthree quarters of 2025, Thailand's total exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) reached 1.993 million tons, a year-on-year (YoY)decrease of 8%. Among this, total exports of standard rubber stood at 1.116 million tons, down 20% YoY; exports of smoked sheet rubber were308,000 tons, up 22% YoY; and exports of latex amounted to 556,000 tons, rising 10% YoY. From January to September, Thailand's total natural rubber exports to China reached 759,000 tons, a 6% YoY increase. Specifically, exports ofstandard rubber to China totaled 459,000 tons, down 19% YoY; exports of smoked sheet rubber to China were 99,000 tons, surging 330% YoY;and exports of latex to China amounted to 199,000 tons, up 70% YoY. In the same January-September period, Thailand's total exports of mixed rubber reached 1.254 million tons, a 39% YoY increase; among this,mixed rubber exports to China totaled 1.247 million tons, a 42% YoY rise. Overall, Thailand's combined exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first three quarters reached 3.247 million tons, up 5.8% YoY;total exports to China stood at 2.006 million tons, a 26% YoY increase. Industry News 3.【Myanmar Launches Initiative to Boost Rubber Yield per Acre】According to foreign media reports on October 23, the Perennial CropsDivision under Myanmar's Ministry of Agriculture (Head Office) stated that the country is currently implementing a program, with a nationalproduction target of increasing rubber yield to over 1,000 pounds per acre. An official from the Perennial Crops Division said that efforts to achieve the target yield of over 1,000 pounds per acre will help boostMyanmar's overall rubber production and exports, potentially increasing the country's export revenue by approximately 1 billion US dollars."We have conducted research and developed methods that both entrepreneurs and farmers can apply to enhance yields. We are also workingto gain a larger share in the global rubber market," the official added. He noted that to improve productivity, replanting old rubber plantations with new, high-quality, and pure rubber tree varieties to replace agingones will further raise yield levels. These high-quality pure rubber varieties are available not only from the seed production farms of thePerennial Crops Division under the Ministry of Agriculture but also from licensed private seed producers. Data shows that in the 2024-25 fiscal year, the average yield of Myanmar's rubber plantations was 727.48 pounds per acre. As of 2025 so far,Myanmar has over 1.5 million acres of rubber plantations, mainly in the Tanintharyi and Bago Regions, as well as Mon State, Kachin State, andShan State. Currently, approximately 75% of Myanmar's rubber is exported to China, with other export destinations including Malaysia,Indonesia, Vietnam, India, and Japan. Market trends Futures Prices ØThis week, the domestic and international rubber markets showed divergence, with INE NR leading the decline whileinternational markets edged slightly higher. Basis & Calendar Spread Other Spreads: Inter-Commodity/Inter-Market Spreads ØThe price spreads of RU-NR and RU-BR have widened, while the price spreads of NR-SGX TSR20 and RU-JPXRSS3 have narrowed. Other Spreads: Spot(not deliverable) - Future This week, the quotation for the imported rubber market has risen. Withtraders rotating their positions, replenishing stocks at the end of the month,and some arbitrage positions closing for shipment, near-month shipmentshave increased, and the range of actual transaction prices has expanded. The quotation focus of domestic natural rubber spot has followed the futuresmarket for minor adjustments. As the futures market focus remains unstable,downstream buyers have a strong wait-and-see sentiment and maintain a rigiddemand-based stock replenishment pace, leading to average actual tradingvolume during the trading session. Other Spreads: Light and DarkColoredRu