行业周报：天然橡胶

GTJA Futures Research InstituteGAOLinlin（Analyst）Advisory Code : Z0002332Date : 2025/6/29 CONTENTS Supply & Demand Data Trading Advice Market Trends Industry News Futures PricesBasis & Calendar SpreadOther SpreadsPrice of SubstitutesCapital Trends SupplyDemandInventory Trading Advice Industry News Industry News Industry News 1.【ANRPC: May Global Natural Rubber Production Expected to Decrease by 1.2%, Consumption Slightly Down by 0.1%】According tothe latest report from ANRPC for May 2025, global natural rubber production is expected to decrease by 1.2% to 1.04 million tons, an increaseof 35.6% compared to the previous month. Rubber consumption is forecasted to slightly decline by 0.1% to 1.27 million tons, which representsa 1.7% increase from the previous month. Global natural rubber production in 2025 is expected to rise by 0.5% year-on-year to 14.892 million tons. The breakdown by country is asfollows: Thailand +1.2%, Indonesia-9.8%, China +6%, India +5.6%, Vietnam-1.3%, Malaysia-4.2%, Cambodia +5.6%, Myanmar +5.3%,andother countries +3.5%. Global natural rubber consumption in 2025 is expected to increase by 1.3% year-on-year to 15.565 million tons. Consumption by country isexpected to increase in China by 2.5%, India by 3.4%, Thailand by 6.1%, while it is forecasted to decrease in Indonesia by 7%. Malaysia isexpected to increase by 2.6%, Vietnam by 1.5%, Sri Lanka by 6.7%, Cambodia is expected to see a significant rise of 110.3%, andothercountries will experience a decline of 3.5%. The report notes that there was significant volatility in natural rubber prices in May, mainly due to favorable weather conditions leading to anincrease in rubber tapping activities. However, concerns were raised due to a decline in demand from the tire industry and uncertainties relatedto trade tariffs. This month, trade tensions eased somewhat as the U.S. and China held negotiations in mid-May, creating a morecooperativeatmosphere that may help reduce prior conflicts and bring more stability to the trade environment. The slower growth forecastfor globaldemand in 2025 aligns with growing concerns about a potential global economic slowdown. This is exacerbated by the complexityofU.S.tariffs and the possibility of reduced trade activity due to higher import prices for rubber products. Industry News 2.【China Plans to Pilot 0% Tariff on Rubber Imports from Thailand’s National Rubber Farmers Network via the Mekong River (NorthernRoute)】According to Thai media reports on the 26th, Thailand’s National Rubber Farmers Network revealed that in negotiations with China,Chinese factories are preparing to pilot the direct purchase of 300 tons of rubber from Thai rubber farmers. The rubber willbeimportedthrough the Mekong River basin and enter via Yunnan province, with the tariff rate reduced from 20% to 0%. This has raised concerns among Chinese traders who purchase rubber through six southern ports of Thailand (1. Laem Chabang Port,2.Bangkok Port, 3. Padang Besar Border, 4. Sadao Border, 5. Songkhla’sNaweeDistrict Pak Krab Border, and 6. Rayong’s Mukdahan Border), asthey are still subject to a tariff burden of up to 7,500 THB/ton. Mr.ThirapolSaengkaew, chairman of the National Rubber Farmers Network, disclosed that Thailand currently imposes a 20% import tariff onnatural rubber exports to China. However, during recent bilateral negotiations between Thailand and China, a new developmentemerged.Chinese factories may be able to pilot the direct purchase of 300 tons of rubber from Thai farmers through the National Rubber FarmersNetwork. This pilot program will involve transporting the rubber via the Mekong River basin, through Chiang Khong in Chiang RaiProvince, inan effort to secure a 0% tariff treatment, similar to that for Myanmar, Laos, and Cambodia. Currently, Chinese negotiators are in discussions with the Chinese government, and it is expected that the implementation will begin soon.Typically, Thailand’s rubber exports go through exporters. In the past, some rubber was routed through Laos to benefit from the0% tariff. TheChinese representatives involved in the negotiations understand this situation and are communicating with the Chinese government, pointingout that Laos’ rubber production is far less than that of Thailand. If Thailand can directly export to China with a 0% tariff, there will be no needto route through Laos, and direct discussions are underway between both sides. Mr.ThirapolSaengkaewfurther stated that the Rubber Authority of Thailand (RAOT), which is under the Ministry of Agriculture andCooperatives, is working hard to promote and support farmers to export directly, bypassing intermediaries. By jointly formingcooperatives orrubber farmer organizations with export potential, such as the National Rubber Farmers Network, farmers can receive the fullincome withoutbeing charged processing fees. In discussions with the Chinese side, tariff reductions are possible, and this will require close follow-up. H