行业周报：天然橡胶

GTJA Futures Research InstituteGAOLinlin（Analyst）Advisory Code : Z0002332Date : 2025/11/9 CONTENTS Supply & Demand Data Market Trends Summary Industry News Futures PricesBasis & Calendar SpreadOther SpreadsPrice of SubstitutesCapital Trends SupplyDemandInventory Summary Industry News Industry News Industry News 1.【Q3 European Replacement Tire Market Sales Down 0.6%】On November 6, market data released by the EuropeanTyreand RubberManufacturers' Association (ETRMA) showed that sales of the European replacement tire market in Q3 2025 decreased by 0.6% year-on-year to63.984 million units. Among them, passenger car tire sales fell 0.5% year-on-year to 58.932 million units; truck and bus tire shipments dropped4% year-on-year to 3.015 million units; agricultural tire shipments rose 0.6% year-on-year to 162,000 units; motorcycle/scootertire shipmentsincreased 1% year-on-year to 1.875 million units. The Secretary General of ETRMA stated that the tire market remained generallystable in Q32025, but demand in the truck and bus tire segment remained weak. Data for the first three quarters indicated that tire saleswere generallylower than the same period in 2024. In the consumer goods sector, Q3 sales were flat and slightly down year-to-date. Demand forautomotivetires has shifted significantly from summer tires to all-season and winter tires. The downward trend in the truck and bus tire market seen in Q2continued into Q3. The slight drop in sales so far this year reflects sluggish economic activity in the region and an increase in the number ofimported tires. While sales of agricultural tires remained stable this quarter, they are still far below pre-COVID-19 levels. 2.【General Administration of Customs: China's Rubber Imports Rose 1.2% YoY to 667,000 Tons in October 2025】According to datareleased by China's General Administration of Customs on November 7, China's total imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex)in October 2025 reached 667,000 tons, an increase of 1.2% compared with 659,000 tons in the same period of 2024. From JanuarytoOctober,China's cumulative imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) stood at 6.782 million tons, up 17.2% from 5.787million tons in thecorresponding period of 2024. Industry News 3.【Thailand's Rubber Output Expected to Rise 1% to 4.86 Million Tons in 2025】Latest forecast data fromQinRexshows that Thailand's rubber outputis expected to increase by 1% to 4.86 million tons in 2025, with preliminary data for 2024 at 4.81 million tons. Among regions,the North will rise by 3.1% to303,000 tons; the Northeast by 1.3% to 1.42 million tons; the Central region will drop by 1.7% to 403,000 tons; and the Southby1.2% to 2.74 million tons.Data indicates that the annual harvesting area is expected to slightly decrease by 0.1% to 22.36 million rai, compared with 22.38 million rai in 2024.Specifically, the North will increase by 0.9% to 1.45 million rai; the Northeast by 0.2% to 6.07 million rai; the Central regionwill fall by 0.8% to 2.15 million rai;and the South by 0.23% to 12.69 million rai. Additionally, the per rai yield will rise from 215 kg/rai to 217 kg/rai, an increase of 0.9%. Among regions, theNorth will increase to 209 kg/rai; the Northeast to 234 kg/rai; the Central region will drop to 187 kg/rai; and the South to216kg/rai. In 2025, the harvestingarea will decrease as farmers in the Central and Southern regions cut down low-yielding old rubber trees to switch to planting fruit trees and perennialcrops such as durians and oil palms. The output growth is mainly driven by expected sufficient rainfall, reduced probabilityofrubber tree defoliation diseaseoutbreaks, and increased per rai yield offsetting the impact of reduced harvesting area. 4.【European Commission Officially Launches Countervailing Investigation into Passenger Car and Light Commercial Vehicle Tires】It is reportedthat the European Commission officially initiated a countervailing investigation into passenger car and light commercial vehicletires on November 6, 2025.The scope of products involved in this countervailing investigation is the same as that of the anti-dumping investigation, namely “new pneumatictyres, ofrubber, of a kind used on motor cars, buses or lorries with a load index not exceeding 121 originating in the People’s Republicof China”. The investigation ofsubsidisationand injury will cover the period from 1 January 2024 to 31 December 2024 (‘the investigation period’). The examination of trends relevant forthe assessment of injury will cover the period from 1 January 2021 to the end of the investigation period. All responding enterprises must submit responsesto the sampling questionnaire to the European Commission within 7 days from the date of the investigation initiation (i.e., by November 13, 2025) to obtaincooperative status. Market trends Futures Prices ➢Rubber contracts RU, NR and SGX TSR20 fell in tandem this week, with NR continuing to lead the decline whileJPX