Industry Weekly: Natural Rubber

GTJA Futures Research InstituteGAOLinlin（Analyst）Advisory Code : Z0002332Date : 2025/12/14 CONTENTS Supply & Demand Data Market Trends Summary Industry News Futures PricesBasis & Calendar SpreadOther SpreadsPrice of SubstitutesCapital Trends SupplyDemandInventory Summary Industry News Industry News Industry News 1.【CAAM: November Auto Production Tops 3.5 Million Units for the First Time, Hitting a New Historical High】 According to the latest data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), in November, China's automobileproduction and sales reached 3.532 million units and 3.429 million units respectively, with a month-on-month (MoM) increase of 5.1% and3.2%, and a year-on-year (YoY) increase of 2.8% and 3.4%. The monthly production exceeded 3.5 million units for the first time,setting a newall-time high. From January to November, the cumulative automobile production and sales stood at 31.231 million units and 31.127 million unitsrespectively,representing a YoY growth of 11.9% and 11.4%. The growth rates of production and sales narrowed by 1.3 percentage points and1 percentagepoint respectively compared with the January-October period. Data shows that in November, China's automobile exports reached 728,000 units, up 9.3% MoM and 48.5% YoY, with the monthly exportvolume surpassing the 700,000-unit threshold for the first time in history. In the first 11 months, total automobile exports amounted to 6.343million units, a YoY rise of 18.7%. Therefore, it is estimated that China's annual automobile exports are expected to approach the 7 million-unitmark in 2025. In the January-November period, the production and sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China both neared 15 million units, with a YoYgrowth rate of over 30% for both indicators. In terms of exports, NEV exports hit 2.315 million units, doubling the figure fromthe same periodlast year. Industry News 2.【Malaysia's NR Output Down 22.7% YoY in October】 According to the data released by the Department of Statistics Malaysia on December 11, Malaysia's natural rubber (NR) exports in October2025 rose 9.9% year-on-year (YoY) to 52,932tonnesand grew 57.8% month-on-month (MoM). Specifically, 55.3% of the exports were destinedfor China, followed by Germany (9.4%), the United Arab Emirates (8.7%), the United States (8%) and Egypt (2.7%). Malaysia's NR imports in October reached 68,318tonnes, down 21.3% YoY but up 7.8% MoM. The major import categories included TSR,concentrated latex and other forms of natural rubber, with the primary sourcing countries being Thailand, Côte d’Ivoire, thePhilippines,Myanmar and others. The total monitored NR output of Malaysia stood at 29,673tonnesin October, a decrease of 22.7% YoY and an increase of 11.4% MoM. Amongthis total, smallholder plantations contributed 86.5%, while state-owned plantations accounted for 13.5%. Malaysia's NR inventories amounted to 145,438tonnesin October, down 8.9% MoM but up 8% YoY. In terms of inventory distribution, 80.1%were held by rubber processors, 19.8% by downstream end-users and 0.1% by large-scale plantation owners. Domestic NR consumption in October climbed 0.7% YoY to 24,275tonnes, while edging down 1.6% MoM. The latex glove industry remainedthe dominant consumer of NR in Malaysia, accounting for 69.6% of total consumption. The tire and hose sector made up 8.2%, rubber thread11.4%, and other industries such as rubber footwear 10.8%. Industry News 3.【Status Quo of Europe's Electric Vehicle Market】 One year has passed since LMC Automotive published a blog post on the slowing growth of electric vehicles (EVs) in the EuropeanUnion. Backthen, the market situation could be summed up by an old saying: "Far from showing any vitality, it was instead a landscape offactory closures,order cancellations, pervaded by austerity and uncertainty!" Nevertheless, much has improved since then. Most automakers haveadapted wellto shifts in market demand, which has helped foster a more favorable environment for the EV industry. Overall, it is clear that European automakers are actively readjusting their powertrain strategies to cope with sluggish EV demand, economicheadwinds and changes in regulatory standards. These manufacturers are shifting toward a more balanced and adaptable strategy, with hybridvehicles serving as a crucial transitional technology, while continuing to push forward investment in and development of electric vehicles. Market trends Futures Prices ➢Rubber futures rallied both domestically and overseas this week, with NR posting the largest gains. Basis & Calendar Spread Other Spreads: Inter-Commodity/Inter-Market Spreads ➢The price spread of RU-NR and RU-BR has narrowed, while the price spreads of NR-SGX TSR20 and RU-JPXRSS3 have widened. Other Spreads: Spot(not deliverable)-Future ➢This week, the quotation focus of the imported rubber marketmoved downward. Traders mainly engaged in position rotationand cargo replacement, with only a smal