原油周报

GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES Research InstituteChief Analyst, Administrative Head of Energy and Chemical Group ·HuangLiunanInvestment consultingprofessional qualification number：Z0015892Date：2025-11-03 CONTENTS Overview Supply Price and Spread Demand Inventory Macroscopic Operating rates of refineries inEurope and AmericaOperating rate of Chineserefineries Inventory of various types of oilproducts in the United Statesand EuropeInventory of various types of oilproducts in the Asia Pacificregion Overview of Export Volume ofOPEC+CoreMember CountriesOverview of Export Volume ofNon-OPEC+CoreMemberCountriesUS shale oil production Futures and spot basis difference geopoliticalrisks in the shortprecious metals, and oil price Futures monthly spread term;it is not advisable totrends Price difference between SC,WTI & Brent chaselongpositionsOverseas service industry data China Credit Data Net position change Overview Supply: Short-term disruption of Russian oil, continued depletion of inventories in Asia Supply: Short-term disruption of Russian oil, continued depletion of inventories in Asia Demand: As Asian war purchases slow down, the United States and Europe turn to heavy oil Macroscopic View Supply Monthly export volume overview ofOPEC+coremember countries The operating rates in the US and Europe have stabilized, while the operating rate of China's major refinerieshas declined. The "Rizhao Port Incident" may continue to have an impact. Demand The operating rates of the United States and Europe may gradually increase seasonally, while the operatingrates of China's main refineries have rebounded and the operating rates of local refineries have stabilized Inventory U.S. business inventories have declined; inventories in the Cushing area remainsignificantly below the historical average. Domestic refined oil gross profit has declined Price and Spread Net long positions rebound TheviewsandinformationinthiscontentareforprofessionalinvestorsofGuotaiJunanFuturesonly.Itisdifficulttosetupaccessprivilegesforthiscontent,sopleaseunderstandifitcausesanyinconveniencetoyou.IfyouarenotaprofessionalinvestoramongtheclientsofGuotaiJunanFutures,pleasedonotread,subscribetoorreceiveanyrelatedinformation.Thiscontentdoesnotconstitutearecommendationofanyspecificbusinessorproduct,norshoulditberegardedasinvestmentadviceonthecorrespondingfinancialderivatives.Pleasemakeyourowninvestmentdecisionsandbeartheinvestmentrisksaccordingtoyourownrisktolerance,andshouldnotrelyonthiscontentforspecificoperations. AnalystStatement TheauthorhasapracticingqualificationinfuturesinvestmentconsultingorequivalentprofessionalcompetencegrantedbytheChinaFuturesIndustryAssociation.Itisherebydeclaredthatthedatausedinthereportarefromcompliantsources,thelogicoftheanalysisisbasedontheauthor'sprofessionalunderstanding,thereportclearlyandaccuratelyreflectstheauthor'sresearchviewpoints,andthereportstrivestobeindependent,objectiveandunbiased,andtheconclusionsarenotsubjecttoanythird-party'sauthorizationorinfluence. Disclaimer TheinformationinthisreportisderivedfrompubliclyavailableinformationandtheCompanydoesnotguaranteetheaccuracy,completenessorreliabilityofsuchinformation.Theinformation,opinionsandassumptionscontainedinthisreportreflectthejudgmentoftheCompanyasofthedateofissuanceofthisreport.Pricesoftheunderlyingfuturesreferredtointhisreportmaygoupaswellasdown,andpastperformanceshouldnotbetakenasthebasisforfutureperformance.TheCompanymay,fromtimetotime,issuereportsthatareinconsistentwiththeinformation,opinionsandassumptionscontainedinthisreport.TheCompanydoesnotwarrantthattheinformationcontainedinthisreportisup-to-date.Theinformationcontainedinthisreportissubjecttochangewithoutnotice,andinvestorsshouldbeawareofanysuchupdatesorchanges. Theresearchservicesreferredtointhisreportmaynotbesuitableforindividualclientsanddonotconstituteprivateadvice.Undernocircumstancesdoestheinformationoropinionsexpressedinthisreportconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyone.UndernocircumstancesdoestheCompany,itsemployeesoraffiliatespromiseinvestorsanycertaintyofprofit,shareinvestmentreturnswithinvestors,oracceptanyresponsibilityforanylossincurredbyanypersonasaresultoftheuseofanyofthecontentsofthisreport.InvestorsshouldnotethatanyinvestmentdecisionmadeonthebasisofthisreporthasnothingtodowiththeCompany,itsemployeesoraffiliatedorganizations. Themarketinvolvesrisksandinvestmentshouldbemadewithcaution.Investorsshouldnotusethisreportasthesolereferenceformakinginvestmentdecisions,norshouldtheyconsiderthisreportasasubstitutefortheirownjudgment.Beforedecidingtoinvest,investorsshouldalwaysseekprofessionaladviceandexercisecautionifnecessary.ThecopyrightofthisreportissolelyownedbytheCompany.Withoutwrittenpermission,noinstitutionorindividualmayreproduce,duplicateordistributethisreportinanyform.Ifquotedorpublished,thesourcemustbeindicatedas“GuotaiJunanFuturesResearch”,andthisreportshallnotbequoted,abridgedormodifiedinawaythatiscontrarytotheoriginalintent. Copyrightstatement Thecopyri