旅游业未来四种情景

W H I T EP A P E RJ U L Y2 0 2 5 Contents Foreword3 Executive summary4 1 Using scenarios to shape the future of T&T5 2 Scenarios for the future of T&T8 2.1 Major scenarios identified8 3 The way forward17 Endnotes20 Disclaimer This document is published by theWorld Economic Forum as a contributionto a project, insight area or interaction.The findings, interpretations andconclusions expressed herein are a resultof a collaborative process facilitated andendorsed by the World Economic Forumbut whose results do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the World EconomicForum, nor the entirety of its Members,Partners or other stakeholders. © 2025 World Economic Forum. All rightsreserved. No part of this publication maybe reproduced or transmitted in any formor by any means, including photocopyingand recording, or by any informationstorage and retrieval system. Foreword The travel and tourism industry has staged one ofthe most dramatic recoveries in modern economichistory, defying predictions. values – and be better prepared to navigate thisdynamic change. By 2030, these forces will converge, potentiallycreating four possible future scenarios: After losing more than $4 trillion five years agoduring the COVID-19 pandemic, the industry’sremarkable resilience has led to a rebound, perhapsunderscoring that foresight is more important thanever to proactively manage change in a worlddefined by complexity. Consider this: Japan surgedto a record 36.9 million international visitors in2024, surpassing pre-pandemic levels by morethan 15% and cementing its position as a globaltourism leader; and Venice introduced a €5 day-tripper fee to control an overwhelming flow ofvisitors. Around the globe, hotel occupancy ratesin major destinations now exceed 2019 levels.Meanwhile, strategic partnerships between nationsare reshaping travel corridors, with new bilateralagreements streamlining access while airlines forgedeeper alliances to rebuild global connectivity. –A thousand islands world. Fragmentation killstrust. Travel withers. Mauricio ZuazuaPartner and Regional ChairMiddle East and Africa,Kearney –Harmonious horizons. Stability breedsexploration. Overtourism threatens paradise. –Green ascent. Environmental consciousnesstransforms travel. Equity gaps widen. –Tech turbulence. AI personalizes everything.Humans adapt or get left behind. The future isn’t inevitable. But it’s arriving fast. From airline boardrooms to village guesthouses,everyone faces the same question: How doyou thrive when the fundamentals of mobility,sustainability and economic exchange are beingrewritten in real time? Francisco BettiHead, Global IndustriesTeam; Member of theExecutive Committee,World Economic Forum These signs of the industry’s strength and durabilityaren’t isolated incidents. They’re early signals of aprofound transformation reshaping how, where andwhy we travel. The answer will determine whether travel andtourism become a global force for good – orsomething else entirely. What lies ahead? This paper outlines possible futures to helpinvestors, operators and policy-makers makesense of four forces that are rewriting the rules oftravel and tourism – shifting geopolitics, climateurgency, technological disruption and evolving 2030 is less than five years away. The transformationstarts now. Jeff MerrittHead, Centre for UrbanTransformation; Member ofthe Executive Committee,World Economic Forum Executive summary This paper focuses on the developmentof future scenarios for travel and tourismto guide community members in a timeof volatility and uncertainty. As 2030 approaches, the travel and tourism (T&T)sector stands on the threshold of a transformativeera, as the ecosystem is navigating a complexinterplay of technological advances, new consumerbehaviour and global socioeconomic shifts. Thefuture of T&T is inherently uncertain, yet it is alsofilled with promise. This dynamic landscape is givingrise to a multitude of potential future scenarios thatwill shape the industry’s trajectory. marked by significant changes, and exploring thesefuture scenarios will provide valuable insights intohow the industry might evolve. In this context, exploring the future of travel andtourism becomes a critical exercise. It makesit possible to imagine different potential futuresand consider how they might unfold. Examiningthese scenarios allows a deeper understandingof the factors that will influence the industry’sdevelopment and identify key areas for innovationand growth. This exploration will provide aframework for discussing the strategic implicationsof these scenarios and how they might affecteconomies, businesses, communities andtravellers. Ultimately, this makes it possible tonavigate the industry’s complex future and chart apath forward that is informed by a comprehensiveunderstanding of the potential that lies ahead. From geopolitical instability, economicfragmentation and technological innovations tochanging consumer preferences, the s