通过情景规划和战略眼光展望欧洲旅游业的未来

Future Proofing European TourismThrough Scenario Planning and A reportproduced forthe European Travel Commission Copyright ©2025European Travel Commission (ETC) Futureproofing European TourismThrough Scenario Planning and Strategic Foresight All rights reserved. The contents of this report may be quoted, provided the source is given accurately and clearly. While we encourage distribution via publicly accessible websites, this should be done via a link toETC's corporate Published by the European Travel Commission Rue du Marchéaux Herbes, 61, 1000 Brussels, Belgium Website:www.etc-corporate.orgEmail:info@visiteurope.com ISBN No:978-92-95107-83-0 This report was compiled and edited bythe European Tourism Futures Institute(ETFI)at NHL Stenden UniversityofApplied Scienceson behalfoftheETC Market Intelligence Group.Views and opinions expressedin this reportare,those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the EuropeanTravelCommission(ETC)or the Cover:Binoculars on top of rock mountain at beautiful sunset background. Image ID:2415419111Copyright:Licence Standard Shutterstock Futureproofing European TourismThrough Scenario Planning and Strategic Foresight Foreword The tourism industry in Europe is facing a period of profound transformation. Global challenges, ranging fromeconomic shifts and geopolitical tensions to technological disruption and climate change concerns, are creating a National Tourism Organisations (NTOs) are at the forefront of this evolving reality. As the stewards of destinationdevelopment and promotion, they must now not only prepare for the changes of today, but also for the complexuncertainties of tomorrow. In such context, there is a growing need for strategic tools that help tourism bodies Recognising this imperative, the European Travel Commission (ETC) launched this initiative to explore how scenarioplanning can support NTOs in future-proofing their strategies and prepare for multiple potential futures. Lookingahead to 2035, this study shedslight on the forces most likely to shape European tourism in the coming decade This report is the result of a collaborative process designed to empower NTOs with tools for long-term thinking andforward-looking decision-making. More than a theoretical exercise, the project was rooted in active participation By embedding foresight practices into tourism planning, ETC aims to foster a culture of anticipation, innovation,and proactive response. The findings of this study aim to serve as both a practical guide andasource ofinspiration Eduardo SantanderCEO/Executive Director Futureproofing European TourismThrough Scenario Planning and Strategic Foresight Acknowledgements This report was prepared by Dr. Albert Postma,NoëlMiddelhoekand Nazli Kurupinarfrom the European TourismFutures Institute (NHL Stenden University of Applied Sciences) for the European Travel Commission (ETC). ETCextends its sincere appreciation to them for their invaluable leadership, expertise, and thoughtful facilitation This report forms part of ETC’s ongoing Market Intelligence Programme and was conducted under the guidance ofJennifer Iduh, Lyublena Dimova, Menno van IJssel, Cornelia KellerandMarie Guilleux (ETC Executive Unit), on behalfof ETC’s Market Intelligence Group (MIG). We thank them for their strategic input and dedication to this forward- We wish to express our sincere thanks to all participants who took the time to attend the workshop session, whether on-site or online.In particular, wewould liketo acknowledge and thank:Aoife Roche (STR Global), Audrey Gaffet(World Economic Forum), Bart Neuts (Visit Flanders), Charlotte Boutboul (World Economic Forum), David Goodger (Tourism Economics),Dimitrios Buhalis (Bournemouth University Business School), Dick Houtman (KU Leuven University),Elke Dens (The Travel Foundation),Ian Yeoman (NHL Stenden University),Luis Millan (Amadeus-ForwardKeys), Marieke Politiek (NBTC), Nessa Skehan (Fáilte Ireland),Olivier Henry-Biabaud (TCI Research-MMGY), SandraCarvão(UN Tourism),Stefan Gössling (Linnaeus University), Stephan Bingemer (Heilbronn University of Applied Sciences),Steven Valcke (Visit Flanders),Tim Fairhurst (ETOA),andXavier Font (University of Surrey). Your willingness to engage fully in the process was key to the project’s success. The diversity of professionalbackgrounds represented in the group enriched the discussions and brought a wide range of perspectives to bearon the challenges and opportunities facing European tourism. Your collective insights, contributions andengagement were essential in identifying key drivers of change and uncertainties, and in shaping the exploratory scenarios at the heart of this work. We are grateful for your time, commitment and the spirit of collaboration that defined this project. We thank yousincerely. Futureproofing European TourismThrough Scenario Planning and Strategic Foresight Contents Introduction...........................................