人工智能的全球经济和金融影响：情景规划练习的教训（英）2026

Global Economic and FinancialImplications of Artificial Intelligence Lessons from a Scenario-Planning Exercise Karim Barhoumi, Fabia de Carvalho, Michael Gorbanyov, YosukeKido, David Koll, Anh Dinh Minh Nguyen, Dragana Ostojic, BaopingShang, Natalia Tamirisa (lead), Sally Toms, and Yunhui Zhao, underthe guidance of Era Dabla‑Norris NOTE/YYYY/###NOTE/2026/002 ©2026 International Monetary Fund Global Economic and Financial Implications of Artificial Intelligence:Lessons from a Scenario-Planning Exercise Note 2026/002 Cataloging-in-Publication DataIMF Library Names: Barhoumi, Karim, author. | Carvalho, Fabia A. de, author. | Gorbanyov, Michael, author. | Kido,Yosuke, author. | Koll, David, author. | Nguyen, Anh Dinh Minh, author. | Ostojic, Dragana, author. |Shang, Baoping, author. | Tamirisa, Natalia T., author. | Toms, Sally, author. | Zhao, Yunhui, 1984-,author. | Dabla-Norris, Era, author. | International Monetary Fund, publisher.Title: Global economic and financial implications of Artificial Intelligence: lessons from a scenario planning exercise / Karim Barhoumi, Fabia de Carvalho, Michael Gorbanyov, Yosuke Kido, David Koll, AnhDinh Minh Nguyen, Dragana Ostojic, Baoping Shang, Natalia Tamirisa (lead), Sally Toms, YunhuiZhao, under the guidance of Era Dabla‑Norris.Other titles: IMF Notes. Description: Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund, 2026. | Apr. 2026. | Note/2026/XXX. | Includes bibliographical references.Identifiers: ISBN: 9798229042482(paper)9798229042932(ePub)9798229042970(webPDF) Subjects: LCSH: Artificial intelligence—Economic aspects. | Economic conditions.Classification: LCC HC79.I55 B3 2026 DISCLAIMER: The IMF Notes Series aims to quickly disseminate succinct IMF analysis on criticaleconomic issues to member countries and the broader policy community. The views expressed in IMFNotes are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its ExecutiveBoard, or IMF Management, as well as the views of institutions associated with workshop participants. RECOMMENDED CITATION: Barhoumi, Karim et al., 2026.“Global Economic and Financial Implicationsof Artificial Intelligence: Lessons from a Scenario-Planning Exercise.” IMF Note 2026/002, InternationalMonetary Fund, Washington, DC. Publication orders may be placed online or through the mail:International Monetary Fund, Publication ServicesP.O. Box 92780, Washington, DC 20090, U.S.A.T. +(1) 202.623.7430publications@IMF.orgIMFbookstore.orgelibrary.IMF.org *We thank Anton Korinek, the head of theEconomics of Transformative AI Initiativeat the University of Virginia and a co-organizerof the workshop on theGlobal Economic and Financial Implications of Artificial Intelligence(December 10–11, 2025), as well asparticipants in the workshop, for their presentations and insightful discussions. Contributions of theWindfall Trustorganization’sexperts to the design and facilitation of the scenario‑planning exercise conducted at the workshop are also gratefully acknowledged.The workshop operated under the Chatham House Rule. The authors thank Andy Berg, Rex Ghosh, Antonio Spilimbergo, JimTebrake, Eugenio Cerutti, Mercedes Garcia-Escribano, Florence Jaumotte, Marco Marini, and Elad Meshulam for their helpfulcomments. Jakeline Barcelos, Sharon Eccles, and Nokuthula Nkhoma provided excellent editorial assistance. Contents Executive Summary _________________________________________________________2 Introduction ________________________________________________________________3 State of Artificial Intelligence Technology and Related Economic Policy Issues ________4Overview ___________________________________________________________________4Frontier Capabilities versus Economic Adoption _____________________________________4Economic Growth, Productivity, Bottlenecks, and Debt Dynamics _______________________6Automation and Labor Markets Outcomes _________________________________________7International Inequality, Divergence, and Market Power _______________________________9Society, Governance, and Policy Architecture _____________________________________11Main Takeaways ____________________________________________________________12 Scenario-Based Assessment of Artificial Intelligence’s Macroeconomic and PolicyImplications _______________________________________________________________12Overview __________________________________________________________________12Macroeconomic Impacts under Current Policies ____________________________________13Policy Implications___________________________________________________________15Main Takeaways ____________________________________________________________18 Conclusions and Policy Implications __________________________________________20 References________________________________________________________________22 Appendix 1. Speakers and Presentations on Day 1 of the Workshop ________________24 Appendix 2. Methodology and Assumptions for the Scenario Planning Exercise _____