将气候变化纳入宏观经济分析：影响渠道、数据、模型和情景综述（英）

Integrating ClimateChange into A Review of Impact Channels, Data, Pritha Mitra, Mehdi Raissi, Bruno Versailles, Samuele Centorrino,Maksym Ivanyna, Koralai Kirabaeva, Emanuele Massetti, Mariza Montesde Oca Leon, Ha Nguyen, William Oman, Nooman Rebei, Filippos WP/25/170 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are 2025AUG IMF Working Paper Strategy, Policy, and Review Department IntegratingClimate ChangeintoMacroeconomic Analysis:A Review ofImpactChannels,Data, Prepared byPritha Mitra, Mehdi Raissi, Bruno Versailles, Samuele Centorrino, Maksym Ivanyna, KoralaiKirabaeva, Emanuele Massetti, Mariza Montes de Oca Leon, Ha Nguyen, William Oman, Nooman Rebei,Filippos Tagklis, Alice Tianbo Zhang, Christoph Ungerer, Javier Uruñuela López, and Sha Yu Authorized for distribution byPritha Mitra IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the ABSTRACT:Climate change poses significant and diverse impacts on countries’ macroeconomic and financialstability, resulting in complex macro-critical policy challenges. Consequently, where significant, country-levelmacroeconomic analysis may need to integrate climate change-related impacts and policies. This paperreviews (i)climate change and related policies’channels of impact on the real, fiscal, external, monetary, and RECOMMENDED CITATION:Mitra, P., Raissi, M., Versailles, B., Ivanyna, M., Kirabaeva, K., Massetti, E.,Montes de Oca Leon, M., Nguyen, H., Oman, W., Rebei, N., Tagklis, F., Zhang, A., Ungerer, C., UruñuelaLópez, J., & Yu, S. (2025). Navigating Climate Change Impacts: A Review of Data, Models, and Scenarios forCountry-Level Macroeconomic Analysis. IMF Working Paper No. WP/25/170. International Monetary Fund. WORKING PAPERS Integrating Climate Change into A Review ofImpact Channels,Data, Models, and Prepared byPritha Mitra, MehdiRaissi, Bruno Versailles, Samuele Centorrino,Maksym Ivanyna, Koralai Kirabaeva, Emanuele Massetti, Mariza Montes deOca Leon, Ha Nguyen, William Oman, Nooman Rebei, Filippos Tagklis, Alice Contents 1. Introduction.......................................................................................................................................................52. Climate Change, Climate Policies, and Macroeconomic Outcomes............................................................73. Climate-Macro Models and Tools..................................................................................................................194. Considerations for Enhancing Climate–Macroeconomic Analysis at the Country-Level.......................355. Future Areas for Consideration.....................................................................................................................42 1.Introduction Climate change is affecting countries' macroeconomic and financial stability through various channelsand to different degrees.The impactcan besignificantfor some countries. Against this backdrop,somecountry authorities and stakeholders are seeking to integrate climate change-relatedimpacts and policies intocountry-level macroeconomic analysis.In support of these efforts, this paperoutlines key channels through The challenges posed by the global nature, uncertainties, and complexity of climate change must be ▪Climate change has a wide range of inter-related impacts, manifesting both ingradual long-term shifts inclimateand through changes to the frequency and intensity ofextreme weather events(Box 1). ▪The macroeconomic effects of climate change will unfold over differenttime horizons. The increasingly frequent and intense extreme weather events (heat waves, cold snaps, droughts, floods, storms, wildfires,landslides) can have significant near-to medium-term effects. Slow-moving, long-term shifts in climate (e.g.,sea-level rises, changes in precipitation patterns, and acceleration of warming trends) are often overlooked innear-to medium-term projections, but they can have significant effects, especially over longer periods.3 ▪In addition to the economic effects of a changing climate, theadaptation and mitigation policiescountriesadopt over the coming yearsmayhave important macroeconomic implications across economic sectors and, ▪When macro-critical, the effects onspecific sectors, such asagricultureandenergy systems,should also ▪Application ofrealistic and consistentclimate scenariosis essential.While climate scenarios are inherentlyuncertain, they are critical for integrating the effects of gradual global warming in country-level analysis, including long-term macroeconomic projections and Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA).Scenarios are alsoessential for understanding the macro-financial implications of physical risks,5mitigation policies, and risks Much progress