新经济的四种未来：2030年地缘经济与技术

Four Futures forthe New Economy:Geoeconomics andTechnology in 2030 W H I T EP A P E RD E C E M B E R2 0 2 5 Contents Foreword3 Executive summary4 1Introduction5 2Four futures for the new economy in 20307 3Implications for businesses15 4How can businesses prepare today for any scenario17 Contributors19 Endnotes21 Disclaimer This document is published by theWorld Economic Forum as a contributionto a project, insight area or interaction.The findings, interpretations andconclusions expressed herein are a resultof a collaborative process facilitated andendorsed by the World Economic Forumbut whose results do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the World EconomicForum, nor the entirety of its Members,Partners or other stakeholders. ©2025 World Economic Forum. All rightsreserved. No part of this publication maybe reproduced or transmitted in any formor by any means, including photocopyingand recording, or by any informationstorage and retrieval system. Foreword Saadia ZahidiManaging Director andHead, Centre for the NewEconomy and Society,World Economic Forum Mirek Dušek Managing Director,Chief Business Officer andHead of Global Programming,World Economic Forum Forum’s Chief Strategy Officers Communityand other experts across the Forum’s industrycommunities and Global Foresight Network.It explores how the interaction between twocritical forces – geoeconomics and technology– and their potential trajectories could shapethe global economy by 2030. Building on theperspectives of experts and business leaders,the paper presents four distinct scenarios for2030 and analyses key risks, opportunitiesand strategy implications for businessesacross these alternative futures. It also offersa set of “no-regret” moves that have emergedthrough dialogues as strategies that could helpbusinesses prepare today for any scenario. Geoeconomic shifts are reshaping regulatoryframeworks and the established patterns of trade,investment, talent and knowledge flows. Technologicalbreakthroughs – from artificial intelligence (AI) agentsto autonomous systems and biotechnology – areaccelerating innovation, albeit raising urgent questionsabout economic inclusion, safety and governance.Financial markets oscillate between exuberance andvolatility, while societies are grappling with growingdebt, demographic shifts, rising polarization and thecontinued effects of climate change. The result is a global economic landscape markedby complex trade-offs and adapting to multipletransformative shifts. Businesses that thrive in thenew economy will be those that prepare broadly,adapt continuously and create resilient andinclusive ecosystems. The aim of these scenarios is not to predict wherethe world will be in 2030, but to translate foresight-driven insights into practical value for decision-makers and to provide a framework to help leadersexplore, question and adapt to the complex globaleconomic developments. The World Economic Forum’s Scenarios for theGlobal Economy Dialogue Series uses scenarioanalysis to stress-test assumptions, uncover blindspots and parse through a range of economicuncertainties. It provides business leaders witha space for peer-level, cross-sectoral dialogueon key economic developments, interconnectedrisks and their implications for strategy andinvestment decisions. This white paper is the first output in a series ofscenario explorations on key economic topics andtheir implications for business. The dialogue serieswill explore different scenarios in each quarter of2026, focusing on challenges and uncertaintiesof business relevance. We hope it will be a usefulresource for decision-makers and a foundation forongoing dialogue. This white paper consolidates views and insightsfrom the members of the World Economic Executive summary Navigating the new economy requiresagility, resilience and, above all, foresight. Heightened uncertainty, complex geoeconomicsand fast-changing technologies are poised tochallenge many of the assumptions that haveguided corporate strategies over previousdecades. In the new economy, strategic decisionsinvolve heightened complexity, risks are moreinterdependent and opportunities can emerge inunexpected ways. technology fails to deliver expected economicimpacts. Adoption of frontier technologies hasbeen limited to a few sectors and industryleaders across the world and has not had asignificant impact on wages and jobs. 3Tech-based Survival: Widespreadtechnology adoption and geopolitical volatilityhave created a world where technologicalopportunities are vast, but trust, coordinationand stability are in short supply. Businessesuse digitalization to offset the costs ofgeopolitical disruptions, creating both newopportunities and material risks. Businesses need tools not just to adapt, but toanticipate and prepare. Foresight is critical to helpbusinesses understand and harness the evolvingpatterns of the global economy. Turning uncertainty into foresight 4Geotech Spheres: As geopolitical vo