新经济下就业的四种未来：2030年的人工智能与人才

Four Futures for Jobsin the New Economy: W H I T EP A P E R Images:Adobe Stock Contents Executive summary 1Introduction2Four futures for jobs in 20303Implications for businesses4How businesses can prepare today for any scenarioContributorsEndnotes Disclaimer This document is published by theWorld Economic Forum as a contributionto a project, insight area or interaction.The findings, interpretations andconclusions expressed herein are a resultof a collaborative process facilitated and ©2026 World Economic Forum. All rightsreserved. No part of this publication maybe reproduced or transmitted in any formor by any means, including photocopying Executive summary Foresight provides a lens to explore criticaluncertainties and shape strategies to The rapid commercialization of emerging technologiesis reshaping workflows, business models and talentpipelines. As artificial intelligence (AI) shifts fromexperimentation to integration, the pace and trajectory 1Supercharged Progress: Exponential AIbreakthroughs reshape industries, businessmodels and workflows. Productivity soars andinnovation flourishes. Widespread AI readinessallows people to harness the “agentic leap”,adapt to AI-centric economies and partiallycontain displacement. Many jobs have The views of business executives on the impactof AI vary too: globally, about 54% expect AI todisplace existing jobs, and 24% said AI will createnew jobs. Nearly 45% also cited an increase inprofit margins as a likely impact of AI, and only 2The Age of Displacement: Exponential AIadvancement outpaces the capacity of theworkforce to adapt. Businesses race toautomate as a stopgap, displacing workersfaster than education and reskilling systems canrespond. Agentic AI takes over key processes,creating a productivity upsurge, but also new The future of workplaces and value chains will notbe defined by the technologies alone. Human capitalstrategies and investments prioritized today will Turning uncertainty into foresight The World Economic Forum’s Scenarios for the GlobalEconomy Dialogue Series uses scenario analysisand cross-industry dialogue to help decision-makers navigate global economic developmentsand their implications for strategy and investment 3Co-Pilot Economy: Gradual AI progress andavailability of AI-ready skillsets shift the focustowards augmentation rather than massautomation. The AI hype of the 2020s hasgiven way to pragmatic integration: mostindustries see incremental transformation as This second edition in the series explores how AIadvancements and talent trends, and their potentialtrajectories until 2030, could shape the future 4Stalled Progress: Steady AI progress meetsa workforce lacking critical skills. Productivitygrowth is patchy, and businesses lean onautomation to backfill scarce talent. Gainsconcentrate within businesses and geographieswith AI expertise, while others face erodingcompetitiveness. Displacement hits primarily Four scenarios for the future Taken together, AI advancement and talentdevelopment vectors generate the following –Invest in data governance and infrastructure–Anticipate talent needs and future-proofvalue chains Strategies for the future Drawing on the scenario narratives, analysis ofbusiness implications across the alternative futures,and dialogues with chief strategy officers and –Start small, build fast, scale what works –Align technology and talent strategies –Invest in human-AI collaborationand agentic workflows Introduction The convergence of disruptive emergingtechnologies and workforce transformation The convergence of multiple transformativeforces is reshaping the global economy.Global macrotrends – such as geoeconomicfragmentation, technological change, the green The adoption of these technologies promisessystemic gains in productivity,3but also raisescritical questions about economic inclusion, values, According to the World Economic Forum’s annualsurvey of over 10,000 executives globally, about54% of respondents expect AI to displace existingjobs, and 24% said AI will drive the creationof new jobs. More than four in 10 executivessurveyed expect AI to increase profit marginsacross businesses, and only slightly less said AI The rapid acceleration and commercialization ofdisruptive emerging technologies such as artificialintelligence (AI), autonomous systems and roboticsare among the most transformative trends. Over thelast few years, AI has moved from experimentation In the meantime, global talent dynamics are shiftingtoo. Demographic trends, persistent skills gaps andstrained social safety nets create complex – andoftencompounding – pressures on labour markets.The shortening longevity of skills demands greateragility and foresight from education and training and workforce transformation (24%) as some of the Throughout 2025–2026, the Forum’s Scenariosfor the Global Economy Dialogue Series usesscenario analysis and peer-level, cross-sectoral Taken together, these shifts – and the diffusion