全球供应链发展趋势蓝皮书（2025）

Blue Book: The Future of Global Supply Chains (2025) 编写组 Editorial Team 主编Chief Editor:蔡，进Cai Jin 副主编AssociateEditor:胡大剑陈啸风Hu DajianChen Xiaofeng 编写单位：(按中文名称拼音排序)Compiling Units (Sort by Pinyin) 安永（中国）企业咨询有限公司Ernst & Young (China) Advisory Limited China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, The Specialized Committee for中国物流与采购联合会采购与供应链管理专业委员会Purchasing and Supply Chain Management 支持单位：(按中文名称拼音排序）Support units (Sort by Pinyin) 海尔集团Haier Group 华为技术有限公司Huawei Technologies Co,Ltd. 京东物流股份有限公司JD Logistics,inc. 联想集团Lenovo Group 厦门国贸集团股份有限公司liamen ITG Group Corp, Ltd. 厦门建发股份有限公司Xiamen C&D Inc. 厦门象屿股份有限公司XMXYG Co, Ltd. 中国中煤能源集团有限公司China Netional Coal Group Corp 中兴通讯股份有限公司ZTE Corporation 中煤信息技术（北京）有限公司 序言 Introduction 在全球化深度演进的当代，供应链作为贸贯通生产、流通与消费的关键枢纽，深刻影响着世界经济的运行方式，其稳定性与效率不仅决定企业的竞争优势，更成为国家经济安全与全球发展格局的重要支撑。在此背景下，深度解析全球供应链的现实图景、精准把握其演进方向，已成为各国在复杂国际经济环境中锚定战略定位、抢抓发展机遇的必要前提。 站在2025年的时间节点回望，全球供应链正经历着自全球化深入推进以来最为深刻的系统性变革。贸易壁垒高筑、地缘政治裂变、技术革命纵深推进与气候治理压力加剧等多重力量交织共振，推动全球供应链体系进入范式选代与自适应调整的关键阶段。与此同时，中国作为制造业大国，在“双循环”新发展格局的引领下，正通过韧性体系构建、数智化转型与绿色技术创新，探索符合时代特征的全球供应链发展新路径。 本蓝皮书立足全球视野与中国实践，通过剖析全球供应链的演进路径，厘清地缘政治、技术创新、关税政策、可持续发展等核心变量的交互影响，展望全球供应链的发展趋势，揭示其在多重约束下的适应特征与变革逻辑，以期为全球供应链成员提供兼具理论深度与实践价值的战略参考，助力构建更具多元化与抗风险能力的全球供应链体系。 In the current phase of deepening globalization, the supply chain, as thekey link connecting production, distribution and consumption, profoundlyimpacts the functioning of the world economy. Its stability and efficiencynot only determine the competitive advantage of enterprises, but alsounderpin a country's economic security and the global development landscape. Against this backdrop, a thorough understanding of the state ofglobal supply chains and a precise grasp of their future direction havebecome prerequisites for countries to set their strategic positioning andseize opportunities in a complex international economic environment. Looking back from the 2025 horizon, global supply chains are undergoing the most farreaching systemic transformation sjince the intensificationof globalization. The interplay of rising trade barriers, geopoliticalfragmentation, the deepening of technological revolutions and increasingpressure from elimale governance has pushed the supply chain system intoa critical phase of adaptation and paradigm change. Meanwhile, China, as amanufacturing powerhouse, is exploring new supply chain paths suited tothe times through resilience building, digitalintelligent transformation andgreen technology innovation under the new *dual cireulation"* developmentparadigm. Based on a global perspective and China's practice, this book analyzesthe evolution of global supply chains, clarifies the interactive effects ofgeopolitics, technological innovation, tariff policies and sustainable development, and looks ahead to future trends., It reveals the adaptive featuresand transfonmation logic of supply chains under multiple constraints, withthe aim of providing a strategic reference that combines theoretical depthwith practical value and helping to build a global supply chain system thatis more diverse and more resilient. 目录 Contents 全球供应链的多维演进与格局重构Multi-Dimensional Evolution and StructuralReeonfiguration of Global Supply Chains 地缘重构与近岸外包加速区域化 1.1Geopolitical Realignment and NearshoringAccelerate Regionalization 关税政策与系统性风险加剧复杂性1.2Tariff Policies and Systemic Risks IncreaseComplexity 基础设施、通信技术与创新技术驱动供应链提质1.3Infrastructure, Communications and TechnologiesImprove Supply Chain Efficiency 可持续发展理念驱动绿色供应链转型Sustainable Development Drives the GreenTransfomation of Supply Chains 全球供应链的趋势研判与发展方向Trend Analysis and Development Direction of Global11Supply Chains 从全球化粗放布局转向区域化精细协同 2.1From Extensive Globalized Layout to13Refined Regionalized Collaboration 从单一成本驱动到构建多元韧性网络2.2From CostDriven Only to Building Diversified13Resilient Supply Chain Networks 从传统要素驱动转向数智化创新驱动 2.3From Traditional Factors Driven (o15Digital Innovation Driven 从资源消耗型发展转向绿色可持续发展 2.4From ResourceIntensive to Sustainable15Development 全球供应链重构下的中国战略与创新实践China's Strategy and Innovative Practices Under the17Reconstruction of Global Supply Chain 以“双循环”战略重塑全球供应链新格局3.1Reshaping the Landscape of Global Supply Chains19Through the *Dual Circulation’ Strategy 以“多元布局”能力重构全球供应链韧性新体系3.2Reconfiguring Global Supply Chain Resilience Through21Diversified Layout Capabilities 以“新质生产力”重塑供应链新赛道3.3Reshaping Supply Chains Through New QualityProductive Forces21 以“绿色技术”助力全球供应链低碳转型3.4Advancing the Global Supply Chain LowCarbon23Transformation Through Green Technologie 全球供应链重构下的中国战略与创新实践 Prospects and Strategic Recommendations for25Global Supply Chains 4.1坚持合作共赢的开放理念Adhering to *Winwin Cooperation" Philosophy Wins27 构建多元化供应网络格局4.2Building a Diversified Global Supply Chain Network27 培育智能驱动新动能引擎Cultivating New Drivers Powered by Intelligence29 共塑绿色可持续发展生态4.4CoCreating a Sustainable Ecosystem29 1 全球供应链的多维演进与格局重构 Multi-Dimensional Evolution and StructuralReconfiguration of Global Supply Chains 全球供应链的多维演进与格局重构Multi-Dimensional Evolution an