2025年第二季度白金季度（英）2025

Thirdconsecutiveannualdeficitreconfirmed,expectedat850kozin 2025 •Forecastfullyear2025total supplyis thelowest infive years, declining by3% to7,027koz. Total demandwilldecline by4%,nevertheless outstrippingsupply by850koz•Platinum jewellery demandto rise11%to2,226 kozthis year, its highestlevelsince2018,as Chinagrowthaccelerates•Continued growth in investment demand,up2%in 2025to718koz, withstrong barand coin demandperformancein China•Modest decline in automotive demandforecastgiven tariff-relatedmarketuncertainty;forecastto contract3%to3,033kozfor fullyear2025•Industrial demand tofallto 1,901kozthis yearas substantive, cyclicalglasscapacityexpansionsreduce Trevor Raymond, CEO of the World Platinum Investment Council, comments:“Platinum has broken out of its post-pandemictrading range to be thetop-performing commodityin the first six months of 2025, outpacing gold, silverand broader asset classes.Its pricerose dramaticallyin the second quarter, and inJulyit reached aten-year high ofUS$1,450per ounce.” The World Platinum Investment Council-WPIC®-today publishes itsPlatinum Quarterlyfor thesecondquarter of 2025withanupdatedfull year2025forecast. Totaldemand in Q2’25fell22%year-on-year to1,886koz, impactedbya317 kozreductioninstocks held by exchangesduring the quarteras tariff-related concerns eased temporarilyand inventory levels unwound.This was only partiallyoffsetbystrongquarter-on-quartergrowth injewellery demand(+135koz, 25%), bar and coin demand(+39 koz, 55%)anddemand forbars of or above 500g in China(+12 koz, 33%). Industrial demand was weaker year-on-year(-164koz, 24%) despitebeingup41%quarter-on-quarter, whileautomotivedemandremained flat on the previous quarter,butfell2% year-on-year.Meanwhile,total supply eased 4%year-on-year to 1,876 koz(although itrebounded 29% quarter-on-quarter).Overall, platinum supply and demandwereeffectivelyin balance for thequarter,recordingan 11koz deficit. Total supplyis expected to decline 3%to7,027koz in full year 2025.This willbe itslowestlevel in five years,with mining supply falling6%to5,426 koz,also its lowest level in fiveyears.For full year 2025, the forecast for total demandis7,877koz,a371 koz reduction ontheprior year, principally due to the absence of substantive, cyclical glass capacityexpansionsthis year. The platinummarket is expected to record its third consecutive significant annual deficit in2025, projected at 850 koz,adownwardadjustment of 116 koz from the previous forecast. Mine supplycontractionTotal miningsupplyfell8%year-on-yearto1,453kozin Q2’25, although,after an especially weak Q1’25which was impacted by heavy rainfall in South Africaamong other operationalchallenges, it recovered quarter-on-quarter(+369koz, 34%).Full yearmine supply isexpected todecline 6% to 5,426koz,some 701 koz (11%) below the five-year pre-COVIDaverage. Global recycling continued to show indications of a recoveryduring Q2’25, up 14% quarter-on-quarter and 12% year-on-year.As the flow of spent autocatalyst material continues togrow throughthe remainder of the year,assisted bythe improved platinum group metalbasket price,recycling supply is forecast togrow 6% to 1,601kozin full year 2025, althoughit will remaindepressedcompared to historic levels. Overall,totalsupply is expected todeclineby3%in 2025to7,027koz.Above ground stocksare forecast to decline by22%to2,978koz in 2025(including a restatement of historicalestimates),resulting infour andahalfmonthsof demand cover. Jewellery demandgrowth exceeding expectationsInH1’25platinum jewellery demandwasthe highestlevelsinceH1’15at1,201koz.In Q2’25,platinum jewellery demandgrew32%year-on-year to668 koz. For full year2025, jewellery demand is expected toexceedthe recovery seen in 2024,increasing by11%year-on-yearto 2,226koz, as platinum continues to benefit from itspricediscountrelative to gold.This will represent the highest global total since 2018.Forecastgrowthin Chinais especially noteworthy, up42%year-on-year to585koz, while Japan willsee a healthy 5% gain.Europeanand North Americandemand isforecast to grow7%and8%,respectively,to reach record highs.Despite robust domestic demand, total demand inIndia is due to soften, falling10%year-on-yearto240kozbecause ofreducedexports amidUS tariff uncertainty. Leap in bar and coindemanddriven by ChinaIn Q2’25,adramaticsurgeinChina bar and coin demandelevated total bar and cointo 109 koz,up 55% quarter-on-quarter, whiledemand forbars of or above 500g in Chinagrew33%quarter-on-quarterto 47 koz.However,neither this growth,nor ETFinflows during thequarter,were sufficient to offset the impact caused by the outflow of stocks held byexchanges,whichhad accumulated to high levelsthroughout Q1’25dueto tariff-relatedconcerns.As a result, investment demand sawanet outflow of 64 koz in Q2’25. For full year 2025,totalinvestment demand is forecast to grow2% to718koz on continuedstrong investment demand in China.Barand coin growthherewill offset weakness in otherregions, withtotalbar and