全球经济状况调查报告：2025年第二季度（英）2025

Executive summary. For the first time, geopolitics topped accountants'global risk priorities in Q2:economic fears tied withregulatory and compliance risks as the second highest riskpriority (seeChart 18). Talent scarcity and cybersecurityremain critical but were slightly less prominent this quarter.Climate change, fraud and supply chain risks remainedlower down the agenda for respondents, suggesting arenewed focus on macro-external volatility, with boardsand executives reacting to intensifying global conflicts,regulatory unpredictability and economic pressure. Confidence among global accountants rose for the first time since Q2 2024, butremains weak historically. Confidence rose somewhat in Western Europeand North America but fell sharply in Asia Pacific. Confidence in North America rose in Q2 (seeChart 2),amid some improvement in sentiment among U.S.-basedaccountants, but it remains depressed by historicalstandards, and the other key indicators for the region areat low levels historically. There was another moderategain in confidence in Western Europe, aided by a furtherimprovement in the UK from its record low in Q4 2024.Nonetheless, confidence in the region is still low byhistorical standards. Meanwhile, there was a sharp fall inconfidence in Asia Pacific, erasing the gains made in Q12025. The deterioration in the backdrop for global trade,amid major changes in U.S. trade policy, was likely the keyfactor weighing on sentiment. At the time of the survey,many countries in the region faced the threat of largeadditional increases in U.S. import tariffs once the 90-daytariff pauses ended on 9 July. and the latter not much below, and both are at levelsbroadly similar to other readings since the aftermath ofRussia's invasion of Ukraine. Meanwhile, the EmploymentIndex improved and is not very far below its historicalaverage. Confidence among chief financial officers (CFOs)fell slightly (seeChart 16), and the index for them is nowvery similar to that of the broader panel. There was also anotable deterioration in their perception of new orders.2 Confidence among global accountants rose to itshighest level since Q3 2024:the latest ACCA and IMAGlobal Economic Conditions Survey (GECS) suggests thatglobal confidence improved in Q2 2025 (seeChart 1),although it is still at a low level by historical standards.The changes in the other key indicators were modest.The New Orders and Capital Expenditure indicesdeclined, although the former is at its historical average1 The GECS was not indicative of a sharp slowing inglobal growth in Q2, despite heightened uncertainty:global growth has generally proved quite resilient in the first half of 2025, despite the large increases in U.S. tariffsand massive rise in trade policy uncertainty. While thekey GECS indicators are certainly not pointing to a globaleconomy in rude health, with confidence in particularremaining low, neither are they suggesting that a majordownswing is imminent. Nevertheless, with higher tariffslikely to push U.S. inflation higher over coming months,and as uncertainty and tariffs weigh on the U.S. and globaleconomies, some slowing in global growth looks likelyover the second half of 2025. The extent of the slowingwill depend on developments in the U.S. economy and inits trade policy, as well as geopolitics. ‘Confidenceamong globalaccountantsimproved inQ2, after fallingsharply overrecent quarters.’ Global cost pressures eased according to accountants,although there are divergent regional pressures.The proportion of North American respondents reporting increased operating costs eased slightly, althoughremaining on the high side historically after the largeincrease in Q1 – which likely reflected the rise in importtariffs, increasing the risk that firms may attempt to raiseprices over coming months. Except for Western Europe,cost pressures don’t look concerning in the other regions(seeChart 5). 1. Global and regional analysis While the index can be volatile, the rise in 2025 mayreflect a confluence of factors, including improvementsin the inflationary backdrop in a number of countries,declining central bank interest rates, and the recentweakening of the U.S. dollar against some currencies inthe region. There was a small rise in confidence in theMiddle East, which remains at a relatively favourable levelcompared with the survey’s history. Looking at surveyresponses by date, the escalation of the conflict betweenIsrael and Iran did not appear to have a negative impacton sentiment. By contrast, confidence fell sharply in South Asia and is now at a low level by historical standards.Regional tensions and the rise in U.S. import tariffs, andthreat of additional sharp increases if trade agreementscannot be reached, may have been important factorsweighing on sentiment. Confidence among accountants globally improved in Q2 2025, but it is still quitedepressed historically There were divergent regional changes. Among the majoreconomic regions, confidence rose