泰国：向财政部提供技术援助的技术援助报告——动态随机一般均衡模型的开发

THAILAND Technical Assistanceto the Ministry of Finance –Development of a Dynamic Stochastic GeneralEquilibrium ModelNOVEMBER 2024 MichalAndrle, Daniel Baksa, Mirza Gelashvili and Alberto Soler Institute for Capacity Development DISCLAIMER The contents of this document constitute technical advice provided by the staff of the InternationalMonetary Fund to the authorities of the Fiscal Policy Office of the Ministry of Finance of Thailand (the "CDrecipient") in response to their request for technical assistance. Unless the CD recipient specificallyobjects to such disclosure, this document (in whole or in part) or summaries thereof may be disclosed bythe IMF to the IMF Executive Director for Thailand, to other IMF Executive Directors and members of theirstaff, as well as to other agencies or instrumentalities of the CD recipient, and upon their request, toWorld Bank staff, and other technical assistance providers and donors with legitimate interest (seeStaffOperational Guidance on the Dissemination of Capacity Development Information). Publication orDisclosure of this report (in whole or in part) to parties outside the IMF other than agencies orinstrumentalities of the CD recipient, World Bank staff, other technical assistance providers and donorswith legitimate interest shall require the explicit consent of the CD recipient and the IMF’s ICDdepartment. The analysis and policy considerations expressed in this publication are those of Institute for CapacityDevelopment. DONORS Contents ACRONYMS AND ABREVATIONS ............................................................................................................. 4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .............................................................................................................................. 7 I.INTRODUCTION.................................................................................................................................. 8 II.CHARACTERISTICS OF THE FISCAL FPAS IN THAILAND.......................................................... 11 A.Legislative Framework, Fiscal Rules and Their Oversight .................................................................... 11B.Forecasting Toolkit and Process ........................................................................................................... 12C.Macroeconomic Risk and Policy Analysis ............................................................................................. 15 A.Rationale for the Adoption of a DSGE Model ........................................................................................ 19B.Characteristics of the STAMP................................................................................................................ 20C.Reporting and Software Requirements.................................................................................................. 24 V.ACTION PLAN................................................................................................................................... 28 Annex 1: Logframe of the Project ............................................................................................................... 35Annex 2: Mission agenda............................................................................................................................ 37Annex 3: List of participants in the training ................................................................................................. 39 BoxesBox 1: Overall structure of STAMP ............................................................................................................. 20 Box 2: Illustrative examples of scenarios generated with the canonical version of the STAMP ................ 22 FiguresFigure 1: Structure of the Fiscal Policy Office (MOF) ................................................................................... 9 Figure 2: Structure of the Macroeconomic Policy Bureau .......................................................................... 10 TablesTable 1: Participants in the core group ....................................................................................................... 28 Table 2: CD activities during the project ..................................................................................................... 30 ACRONYMS AND ABBREVATIONS QFMQIPFQPMSTAMPSTXTAVATWEO Quarterly Financial ModelQuantitative Integrated Policy FrameworkQuarterly Projection ModelStructural Analysis of Macroeconomic Policies ModelShort Term ExpertsTechnical AssistanceValue-Added TaxWorld Economic Outlook PREFACE This report marks the beginning of a capacity development project between ICD and the Ministry ofFinance of Thailand. The project, initiated at the request of the Fiscal Policy Office (FPO) of this Ministry,aims to develop and operationalize a structural model (and, in particular, a dynamic stochastic generalequilibrium model) for macroeconomic policy analysis between end-2024