泰国：关于开发动态随机一般均衡工具的技术援助项目：范围界定报告（英）

THAILAND Technical Assistance Project on theDevelopmentof a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Tool:ScopingReportAugust2025 Prepared ByMichal Andrle, Daniel Baksa, Mirza Gelashvili and Alberto Soler High-Level Summary Technical Assistance ReportInstitute for Capacity Development Thailand: Technical Assistance Project on the development of a Dynamic Stochastic GeneralEquilibrium Tool: Scoping Report Prepared by Michal Andrle, Daniel Baksa, Mirza Gelashvili and Alberto Soler TheHigh-Level Summary Technical Assistance Reportseries provides summaries of the assistanceprovided to IMF capacity development recipients, describing the high-level objectives, findings, andrecommendations. ABSTRACT: This document describes the technical needs that have given rise to a Fund’s technicalassistance (TA) project for the development of a customized structural micro-founded (DSGE) model inthe Ministry of Finance of Thailand, as well as its objectives and key work program elements. This project,led by the Institute for Capacity Development (ICD) of the Fund, aims to reinforce the policy analysissystem in Thailand, through the introduction of the DSGE model for policy simulation and macroeconomicrisk analysis. While direct beneficiary of this TA will be the MoF’s Fiscal Policy Office, the authorities planto integrate the tool’s outputs in the Thai macroeconomic reporting infrastructure and main policydiscussion fora, inside and outside the MoF. The contents of this document constitute a high-level summary of technical advice provided by the staff ofthe International Monetary Fund (IMF) to the authorities of a member country or international agency (the"CD recipient") in response to their request for capacity development. Unless the CD recipient specificallyobjects within 30 business days of its transmittal, the IMF will publish this high-level summary on IMF.org(seeStaff Operational Guidance on the Dissemination of Capacity Development Information). Background In March 2024, the Ministry of Finance of Thailand (MoF) requested Technical Assistance (TA) fromthe IMF’s Institute for Capacity Development (ICD) to develop a dynamic stochastic generalequilibrium model (DSGE).This request, initiated by Mr. Pornchai Thiraveja, Director of the Fiscal PolicyOffice (FPO) of MoF, sought to expand the analytical toolkit of the Ministry with a DSGE for macroeconomicpolicy simulation. Upon study of the request, the project was included in ICD’s TA work program of FY25 andFY26 and obtained financing assurances from the Government of Japan. In November 2024, a scoping mission fielded in Bangkok conducted a diagnostic of the technicalcapacity of FPO staff and assessed the possible role of a DSGE model in the Thai Governmentforecasting and policy analysis system (FPAS).To that end, the scoping mission focused on two types ofcomplementary activities.First, it delivered a 6-day introductory training on the economic fundamentals ofNew Keynesian DSGE models to 14 FPO staff, both to lay the foundations of modeling work under the TAproject and as a vehicle of capacity assessment. Second, it met with the most relevant stakeholders in theThai Government FPAS, and in particular with those involved in the preparation of medium-termmacroeconomic and public debt projections, the analysis of macroeconomic risks and macrostructural policydiscussions. These included several departments in the MoF1, as well as the Research Department of theBank of Thailand (BOT) and the Macroeconomic Department of the Office of the National Economic andSocial Development Council (NESDC). Findings of the scoping mission •The Thai Government FPAS has solid legal underpinnings, but there is room to strengthenthe simulation toolkit to increase the depth and breadth of analytical discussion in decision-making processes. The Thai Government FPAS architecture is clearly defined by the FiscalResponsibility Act, the Budget Responsibility Act, and the Public Debt Management Act, with two groupsof fiscal rules concerning public debt and expenditure composition in force. Medium-term macroeconomicand fiscal projections are condensed in a Medium-Term Fiscal Framework (MTFF), discussed andapproved by the Fiscal Policy Committee (FPC). The FPC encompasses the MoF, BOT, NESDC, BudgetBureau, and members of the Fiscal Risk Management Committee (FRMC). Within the MOF, the FPOplays a central role in providing analytical inputs for policy decision making. The analytical toolkit of MoF,BOT and NESDC is quite heterogenous, with their different fields of expertise presenting importantcomplementarities regarding the analysis of macroeconomic and policy scenarios. However, there is stillroom to better integrate policy analysis in the forecasting process. In addition, the analysis ofmacroeconomic risks in the Fiscal Risk report, that summarizes the conclusions of the FRMC, could beenhanced. In this context, the operationalization by the MoF of a micro-founded simulation model couldbe very