加蓬：为开发用于预测和模拟的宏观经济模型提供技术援助-范围界定任务

GABON Technical Assistance for the Development of aMacroeconomic Model for Projection andSimulations - Scoping Mission February2026 Prepared By Jacques LandryBikai(ICDMF-AFRITAC Central), RabahArezki(STX), and Pegdewende NestorSawadogo(ICDCI) Authoring Department: Institute for Capacity Development High-Level Summary Technical Assistance ReportInstitute for Capacity Development Gabon;Technical Assistance for the Development of a Macroeconomic Model for Projection andSimulations - Scoping MissionPrepared by Jacques LandryBikai, RabahArezkiand Pegdewende NestorSawadogo TheHigh-Level Summary Technical Assistance Reportseries provides high-level summaries ofthe assistance provided to IMF capacity development recipients, describing the high-levelobjectives, findings, and recommendations. ABSTRACT:This technical assistance report documents the key phases of the scoping mission for thedevelopment of a macroeconomic model based on financial programming, conducted in Libreville fromMay 5 to 15, 2025, on behalf of the Ministry of Economy and Participations of Gabon. The missionundertook a comprehensive assessment of existing analytical tools and data quality, alongside deliveringtargeted training on financial programming and debt analysis. The exercise highlighted various areas tostrengthen the current tools as well as organizational constraints to be addressed to improveperformance. Building on these findings, a series of recommendations were formulated, endorsed by theauthorities, and subsequently integrated into the project’s action plan. These recommendations propose astep-by-step strategy for the development of a customized macroeconomic model, fully integrated with aDebt Dynamics Tool (DDT), and supported by continuous capacity building and strengthened inter-institutional coordination, aimed at enhancing the robustness of economic analysis and fosteringimproved evidence-based decision-making processes. This technical assistance mission was made possible thanks to the financial support of the government ofJapan. DISCLAIMER The contents of this document constitute a high-level summary of technical advice provided by the staff ofthe International Monetary Fund (IMF) to the authorities of a member country or international agency (the"CD recipient") in response to their request for capacity development. Unless the CD recipient specificallyobjects within 30 business days of its transmittal, the IMF will publish this high-level summary on IMF.org(seeStaff Operational Guidance on the Dissemination of Capacity Development Information). International Monetary Fund, IMF PublicationsP.O. Box 92780, Washington, DC 20090, U.S.A.T. +(1) 202.623.7430 • F. +(1) 202.623.7201publications@IMF.orgIMF.org/pubs Background This report presents the findings of a technical assistance mission conducted by the IMF at therequest of the Gabonese Ministry of Economy and Participations (MEP), submitted in July 2024.The request aimed to support the development of a coherent macroeconomic model and to strengthennational capacities in economic policy analysis. It followed a preliminary needs assessment mission whichidentified deficiencies in forecasting tools, gaps in data quality, and weaknesses in institutionalcoordination. This initiative forms part of the broader IMF engagement to enhance economic governancein developing countries, amid structural vulnerabilities and the imperative to improve macroeconomicmanagement. The scoping mission, conducted in Libreville from May 5 to 16, 2025, represented the initial phaseof a multi-year project estimated to span approximately two years. Its primary objective was to carryout a comprehensive technical assessment of the existing macroeconomic frameworks, decision-makingprocesses, communication channels, inter-institutional coordination, adequacy of human and technicalresources, as well as the quality and management of key data. The evaluation outcomes informed theformulation of an action plan, which was validated by the Institute for Capacity Development GeneralMacro and Fiscal Division (ICDMF) and approved by the MEP. In line with capacity development objectives, the mission devoted six days to intensive training onfinancial programming and debt analysis.This training focused on core principles of financialprogramming and was delivered using a standard version of the Macroframework Foundations Tool(MFT1), populated with Gabonese data extracted from the IMF’s databases. This approach facilitated thetechnical ownership of the MFT model by the national teams and laid a solid foundation for constructivedialogue during subsequent phases aimed at implementing a customized macroeconomic model. Summary of Findings The capacity-building project in macroeconomic modeling responds to the structural imbalancesand vulnerabilities affecting the Gabonese economy. The assessment of macroeconomic imbalances,as highlighted in the 2024 IMF Article IV consultation report, underscores the urgent need