阿尔及利亚：2025年第四条磋商新闻稿；员工报告

2025ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION—PRESS RELEASE;ANDSTAFF REPORT Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussionswith members, usually every year. In the context of the2025Article IV consultation withAlgeria, the following documents have been released and are included in this package: •APress Release. •TheStaff Reportprepared by a staff team of the IMF for the Executive Board’sconsideration ona lapse-of-time basis, following discussions that ended onJune 30,2025, with the officials ofAlgeriaon economic developments and policies. Based oninformation available at the time of these discussions, the staff report was completedonAugust 26, 2025. •AnInformational Annexprepared by the IMFstaff. TheIMF’s transparency policy allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information andpremature disclosure of the authorities’ policy intentions in published staff reports andother documents. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org International Monetary FundWashington, D.C. IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultationwith Algeria FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Washington, DC – September 18, 2025:The Executive Board of the International MonetaryFund (IMF) concluded the Article IV Consultation for Algeria.1The Executive Board’s decisionwas taken on a lapse-of-time basis.2 •Algeria’s economy has shown strong recovery since the pandemic, driven by elevatedhydrocarbon prices and increased public spending.•The near-term outlook remains broadly positive, but urgent policy adjustment is needed.•Medium-term economic prospects will depend on global trends and the pace of domesticreforms aimed at promoting diversification and strengthening private investment. Real GDP eased to 3.6 percent in 2024 from 4.1 percent in 2023, as OPEC+ cuts led to acontraction in the hydrocarbons sector, while nonhydrocarbon activity remained strong,supported by public investment and consumed demand. Inflationary pressures—fueled byglobal shocks like the war in Ukraine and recurring droughts—eased significantly in 2024, withinflation falling largely due to lower food prices. Declining hydrocarbon revenues combinedwith increased public spending significantly widened the fiscal deficit and depleted availablefiscal buffers. The drop in energy exports and increased imports reversed the current accountsurplus into a modest deficit. The Dinar appreciated against the euro but weakened againstthe dollar. Reserves remained strong. Easing of OPEC+ production cuts is expected to stabilize hydrocarbon activity, supporting 3.4percent growth in 2025. Declining hydrocarbon prices and global uncertainty weigh onprospects and could constrain public investment and exports and put pressure on fiscalrevenues. Inflation is expected to remain moderate. The fiscal deficit is expected to declinecompared to 2024 but to remain elevated without strong policy action. The current accountdeficit is projected to widen further. Key external risks include volatile commodity prices, shifts in global trade policy, andescalating conflicts in the Middle East or Ukraine. Other downside risks include extremeclimate events, large contingent liabilities, and high financing needs that could pose risks tofiscal and debt sustainability and intensify the sovereign-bank nexus. On the upside,successful policy adjustment and structural reforms could reduce the fiscal deficit, supportexport diversification, improve the business climate, and deepen financial markets. Executive Board Assessment3 Algeria’s economic prospects for the near term are broadly positive but clouded by growingfiscal vulnerabilities. The 2024 fiscal impulse supported growth into 2025 but, alongside fallinghydrocarbon prices, led to a wider fiscal deficit and depleted fiscal buffers. Headline inflationeased in 2024 and is expected to remain moderate. The current account reversed to a deficitin 2024, projected to widen in 2025-26 before narrowing. Over the medium-term, growth isexpected to slow due to moderating hydrocarbon output, financing constraints cappingspending, and structural bottlenecks inhibiting private sector growth. With the fiscal buffers depleted, large fiscal deficits pose significant financing and debtchallenges, warranting urgent policy adjustment. Double-digit fiscal deficits projected for 2025-26 risk straining the banking sector and crowding out private sector credit, increasing the riskof recourse to unconventional monetary financing schemes. Absent concerted policyadjustment, large financing needs and deficits would significantly increase public debt over themedium term. The sharp deterioration of the fiscal situation in 2024 has heightened near-termrisks and increased Algeria’s overall risk of sovereign stress to “high” based on the SR-DSA. Stabilizing the debt