秘鲁：2025年第四条磋商新闻稿；员工报告

Copies of this report are available to the public fromInternational Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.orgInternational Monetary FundWashington, D.C. IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IVConsultation with PeruFOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE•After a strong recovery in 2024, growth is expected to moderate in 2025, amid global andelection-related uncertainty, and thereafter toremain close to potential. Inflation isexpected to remain close to the midpoint of the target band.The financial system issound.Risks are tilted to the downside given elevated external uncertainty, but Peru hasample buffers to cope with shocks.•Meeting the 2025 fiscal deficit target would require additional efforts in a pre-election year.In the medium term, further fiscal consolidation measures should be identified to complywith the fiscal rule deficit targets and debt ceiling. Introducing bothspending and revenuemeasures would make the consolidation more balanced and credible.•Structural reforms are urgently required to lift potential growth, including updating thefiscal decentralization framework to help boost investments in the critical mineral sector.Enhanced efforts are needed to curb the low but rising level of insecurity, reform labor andtax regulations that impose excessive costs for formalizing or growing a business,enhance the independence and integrity of judicial bodies and tools to combat corruptionimpunity, build resilience to natural disasters, and embrace theopportunities of digitaltechnologies and artificial intelligence.Washington, DC–June 10, 2025:OnJune 5, 2025, the Executive Board of the InternationalMonetary Fund (IMF) concluded the 2025 Article IV consultation1with Peru and endorsed thestaff appraisal without a meeting on a lapse-of-time basis.2The economy has recovered from consecutive natural disaster shocks and social turmoil.Inflation is firmly within the target band, owing to the central bank’searly and decisivemonetary tightening followed by cautious easing. The financial sector remained sound andprofitable. The current account surplus further improved, underpinned by strong terms oftrade. However, the fiscal position weakened. A relative political stability persists but pre-election tensions are rising. Lingering political uncertaintyweighs on economic prospects anddents the appetite for structural reforms to boost potential growth.Growth is expected to moderate to 2.8 percent in 2025. A favorable momentum in privateconsumption and elevated public investment would support continued growth, but pre-electionUnder Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. Astaffteam visits thecountry, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials the country’s economic developmentsand policies. On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis of discussion by the Executive Board.The Executive Board takes decisions under its lapse-of-time procedure when the Board agrees that a proposal can be consideredwithout convening formal discussions. 12 tensions would weigh on the private investment recovery while the impact of the first-roundeffects of the tariffs and global growth slowdown would be negative, although relativelymoderate. Inflation is expected to remain within the target band of 1-3 percent. The currentaccount balance is envisaged to remain in a surplus of 1.7 percent of GDP in 2025, with lowexternal financing and debt rollover risks.Evolving risks are dominated by the potential for larger adverseimpacts on global growth andcommodity prices, due to prolonged trade policy uncertainty and financial market volatility, butPeru has ample buffers to cope with shocks. In the short term, key domestic risks include anintensification of political uncertainty, social unrest over security concerns, and weather-related shocks. Key external risks include trade policy uncertainty, tighter financial conditions,and commodityprice volatility. Recent government initiatives to accelerate private sectorinvolvementin public investment projects and streamline burdensome regulations could helprevive private investment. Peru’s macroeconomic resilience is reinforced by very strongbuffers including low public debt, abundant international reserves, and access to internationalcapital markets on favorable terms.Executive Board AssessmentAfter a strong recovery, growth is expected to moderate, amid global policy uncertaintyand pre-election tensions, and thereafter to remain close to potential. With a closedoutput gap and firmly anchored inflation expectations, headline inflation would remain withinthe target band. The current account balance is envisaged to remain in a surplus, onlygradually returning to a deficit in the medium term—stabilizing at its norm, of about 1.5 percentof GDP—as private inves