塞浦路斯：2025年第四条磋商新闻稿；员工报告

PO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090International Monetary FundWashington, D.C. IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation withCyprusFOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE•Growth is expected to decelerate to 2.5 percent in 2025 and stabilize at 3 percent in the medium termas Cyprus shifts towards more investment-driven growth.•The fiscal surplus reached an impressive 4.3 percent of GDP in 2024, while public debt declined to 65percent of GDP. Fiscal policy should continue to prioritize debt reduction to further build buffersagainst potential shocks.•The banking sector boasts substantial capital and liquidity buffers, with financial risks appearing well-contained. The recent tightening of the macroprudential policy stance, will further enhance thesefinancial buffers.Washington, DC – May 29, 2025:The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)completed the Article IV Consultation for Cyprus and endorsed the staff appraisal without a meeting.1Theauthorities have consented to the publication of the Staff Report prepared for this consultation.2In 2024, Cyprus's growth accelerated to 3.4 percent—one of the highest rates in the euro area (EA)—driven by a strong tourism season, continued Information and Communication Technology (ICT) sectorexpansion, and robust public and private consumption. While inflation has remained volatile, it hasgenerally decreased, with headline inflation falling to 2.1 percent by March 2025. Fiscal performancecontinues to be very strong, with the fiscal surplus increasing to 4.3 percent of GDP in 2024, supported byrobust tax revenues. As a result, public debt has declined to 65 percent of GDP by the end of 2024, whilecash buffers remain large. Financial conditions remain tight, accompanied by subdued credit growth.Nevertheless, the banking sector possesses sizable capital and liquidity buffers, and overall bankingsector risks appear contained.Growth is expected to moderate to 2.5 percent in 2025 before reaching 3 percent in the medium term,driven by higher investment and structural reforms. Inflation is anticipated to hit the 2 percent target laterthis year, supported by moderating growth and lower oil prices. Near-term risks are tilted to the downside,including from elevated uncertainty from global trade tensions. In contrast, longer-term risks are morebalanced, with risks on insufficient progress on structural reforms acting against the upside potential ofCyprus's evolving business model.1Under Article IV of the IMF's Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually everyyear. A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials thecountry's economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which formsthe basis for discussion by the Executive Board.The Executive Board takes decisions under its lapse-of-timeprocedure when the Board agrees that a proposal can be considered without convening formal discussions.2Under the IMF's Articles of Agreement, publication of documents that pertain to member countries is voluntary andrequires the member consent. The staff report will be shortly published on the www.imf.org/cyprus page. Executive Board AssessmentIn concluding the 2025 Article IV consultation with Cyprus, Executive Directors endorsed staff’s appraisal,as follows:Cyprus has demonstrated remarkable economic resilience, with growth among the highest in the EA. Thisstrong performance is underpinned by robust service exports and domestic consumption. The labormarket remains tight, characterized by a declining unemployment rate and elevated job vacancy levels.While uncertainties persist, there are indications of potential overheating in the economy. This, along withtariff-related trade disruption, will lead growth to moderate this year. While volatile, inflation is projected tostabilize around 2 percent by the end of the year. The current account deficit is estimated to havemoderated in 2024, but the external position is assessed to be weaker than the level implied byfundamentals.The immediate outlook presents downside risks, while longer-term risks appear more balanced. Anescalation of trade conflicts—particularly if this broadened to include services trade and FDI—poses animportant downside risk. An escalation of regional tensions, and possible new energy price shocks, couldaffect FDI, tourism, and inflation. Domestically, there are concerns about further overheating, which mayarise from a more accommodative fiscal policy. In the medium-to-long term, investment-driven growth willrely on continuous progress in structural reforms. On the upside, Cyprus's agile and dynamic economyoffers substantial potential for growth.Cyprus's strong fiscal position has reduced vulnerabilities. In 2024, the primary fiscal surplus reached 5.6percent, fueled by significant revenue growth that more than compensated for increased public wagesand social transfers. As a result,