亚太地区的金融互联性：近期变化及其对新加坡的影响（英）

FinancialInterconnectedness inAsia and the Pacific—Recent Shifts andImplications for Singapore Tristan Hennig, Ritu Basu, Cristian Alonso (APD), and Wanying Li (ICD) SIP/2025/114 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff asbackground documentation for periodic consultations withmember countries.It is based on the information available atthe time it was completed on May 15, 2025. This paper is alsopublished separately as IMF Country Report No 25/193. 2025AUG IMF Selected Issues PaperAsia and Pacific Department Financial Interconnectedness in Asia and the Pacific—Recent Shifts and Implications for SingaporePrepared by Tristan Hennig, Ritu Basu, Cristian Alonso (APD), and Wanying Li (ICD) Authorized for distribution by Masahiro NozakiAugust2025 IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it wascompleted on May 15, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/193. ABSTRACT:This paper examines financial interconnectedness in Asia, particularly through Singapore, andthe link between trade and financial flows. It finds that Asia's financial integration lags behind its tradeintegration and is led by advanced economies like Singapore. The FDI network closely resembles the tradenetwork and stands in contrast with the network for portfolio assets, which is dominated by advancedeconomies. Strong trade links boost FDI flows, but not portfolio flows. Singaporean banks face cross-borderand FX funding risks. The authorities continue to make efforts to mitigate these risks. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Alonso et al., 2025. Financial Interconnectedness in Asia and the Pacific—Recent Shifts and Implications for Singapore. IMF Selected Issues Paper (SIP/2025/114). Washington, D.C.:International Monetary Fund. SELECTED ISSUES PAPERS Financial Interconnectedness inAsia and the Pacific—RecentShifts and Implications forSingaporeSingapore Prepared by Tristan Hennig, Ritu Basu, Cristian Alonso (APD), andWanying Li (ICD)1 SINGAPORE SELECTED ISSUES Approved ByAsia and PacificDepartment Prepared By Tristan Hennig, Ritu Basu, Cristian Alonso (APD),and Wanying Li (ICD). CONTENTS FINANCIAL INTERCONNECTEDNESS IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC—RECENT SHIFTSAND IMPLICATIONS FOR SINGAPORE ________________________________________________2 A. Introduction___________________________________________________________________________2B. Asia’s Financial Integration with the Rest of the World _______________________________3C. Network Analysis on Financial Integration in Asia_____________________________________5D. Relationship between Trade and Financial Interconnectedness_______________________7E. Cross-Border Linkages of Singaporean Banks _________________________________________8F. Conclusion___________________________________________________________________________ 13 FIGURES 1.Asia and Pacific: Role in Global Trade and Finance ____________________________________32.International Investment Position _____________________________________________________43.International Investment Position Breakdown_________________________________________44.Asia and Pacific: Network Analysis on Financial Integration ___________________________65.Cross-Border Assets of Banking System_______________________________________________96.Funding Structure of Banks__________________________________________________________107.Cross Border Exposure and Funding Structure of Local D-SIBs_______________________118.Loan to Deposit Ratio and Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) by Currency_____________ 12 TABLE 1. Gravity Model Results on Trade and Financial Interconnectedness ___________________8 References ____________________________________________________________________________ 14 FINANCIAL INTERCONNECTEDNESS IN ASIA AND THEPACIFIC—RECENT SHIFTS AND IMPLICATIONS FORSINGAPORE1 This paper takes stock of the current state of financial interconnectedness in Asia and throughSingapore, and explores the link between trade and financial flows. We find that Asian economies arenot as financially integrated as their integration in trade would suggest and that Asia’s financialintegration with the rest of the world has been led by advanced economies in the region, includingSingapore. The FDI network closely resembles the trade network and stands in contrast with thenetwork for portfolio assets, which is dominated by advanced economies. Analysis based on a gravitymodel confirms that countries with strong prior trade linkages are likely to see higher FDI flows butfinds no such relationship for portfolio flows. As Singapore continues to play a significant role inadvancing financial integration in Asia, Singaporean banks are exposed to cross-border and FXfunding risks. The authorities continue to make efforts to mitigate these risks. A.Introduction 1.Over the past three decades, Asia has experienced extraordin