极端高温：新兴科学及其对亚太地区的影响（英）

THE EMERGING SCIENCE AND ITS IMPLICATIONSFOR ASIA AND THE PACIFIC Richenda Connell, Tom Matthews, Vikki Thompson, Robert L. Wilby, and Kathryn Milliken ADB SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENTWORKING PAPER SERIES ADB Sustainable Development Working Paper Series Extreme Heat: The Emerging Science and Its Implicationsfor Asia and the Pacific Richenda Connell is an independent climate adaptationadvisor. Richenda Connell, Tom Matthews, VikkiThompson, Robert L. Wilby, and Kathryn Milliken Tom Matthews is a senior lecturer in environmentalgeography at King’s College London. No. 114 | December 2025 Vikki Thompson is a climate scientist at the University ofEdinburgh. TheADB Sustainable Development WorkingPaper Seriespresents data from ongoingresearch to encourage exchange of ideasand elicit comment and feedback aboutdevelopment issues in Asia and the Pacific.The views expressed are those of the authorsand do not necessarily reflect the views andpolicies of ADB or its Board of Governorsor the governments they represent. Robert Wilby is a professor of hydroclimatic modelling atLoughborough University. Kathryn Milliken is a senior climate change specialist atthe Asian Development Bank (ADB). Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) © 2025 Asian Development Bank6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, PhilippinesTel +63 2 8632 4444; Fax +63 2 8636 2444www.adb.org Some rights reserved. Published in 20XX. ISSN 2789-0619 (print), 2789-0627 (PDF)Publication Stock No: WPS250472-2DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/WPS250472-2 The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policiesof the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for anyconsequence of their use. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers does not imply that theyare endorsed or recommended by ADB in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area in this document, ADB does notintend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. This publication is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/. By using the content of this publication, you agree to be boundby the terms of this license. For attribution, translations, adaptations, and permissions, please read the provisionsand terms of use at https://www.adb.org/terms-use#openaccess. This CC license does not apply to non-ADB copyright materials in this publication. If the material is attributedto another source, please contact the copyright owner or publisher of that source for permission to reproduce it.ADB cannot be held liable for any claims that arise as a result of your use of the material. Please contact pubsmarketing@adb.org if you have questions or comments with respect to content, or if you wishto obtain copyright permission for your intended use that does not fall within these terms, or for permission to usethe ADB logo. TheADB Sustainable Development Working Paper Seriespresents data, information, and/or findings from ongoingresearch and studies to encourage exchange of ideas and elicit comment and feedback about development issuesin Asia and the Pacific. Since papers in this series are intended for quick and easy dissemination, the content may ormay not be fully edited and may later be modified for final publication. Corrigenda to ADB publications may be found at http://www.adb.org/publications/corrigenda. CONTENTS TABLES, FIGURES, AND BOXESIV ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ABBREVIATIONSVI EXECUTIVE SUMMARYVII I.CONTEXT AND DEFINITIONS1 Focus of Paper1Definitions1 II.RECENT HEAT EXTREMES AND CLIMATE PROJECTIONS State of Existing Knowledge8Concerns and Gaps12Implications for Development Investments in Asia and the Pacific13 III.FORECASTING State of Existing Knowledge15Concerns and Gaps19Implications for Development Investments in Asia and the Pacific20 IV.COMPOUNDING EXTREME HEAT HAZARDS AND THEIR IMPACTS State of Existing Knowledge24Concerns and Gaps30Implications for Development Investments in Asia and the Pacific31 V.SOCIOECONOMIC AND SECTOR IMPACTS State of Existing Knowledge35Concerns and Gaps47Implications for Development Investments in Asia and the Pacific48 VI.RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS50 TABLES, FIGURES, AND BOXES TABLES 1Key Terms Used to Describe Extreme Heat Impacts on Sectors32Five Recommendations on Integrating Emerging Science on Extreme Heat to Improve the51Resilience of Investments and Policies FIGURES Emerging Scientific Developments and Opportunities to Strengthen Heat-ResilientxDecisions in Asia and the Pacific1Describing and Measuring Different Types of Heat and Impacts22Scientific De