安踏品牌表现疲软，其他品牌表现强劲，符合预期

Anta Sports (2020 HK) Softer Antaandstronger others, as expected Target PriceHK$118.55(Previous TPHK$111.54)Up/Downside16.7%Current PriceHK$101.60 1H25 results were inline. And even the cut in Anta guidance and raise in otherbrands’guidance were all largely inline with our expectations.The mainsurprises to us would be the better-than-expected OP margin (esp. of the otherbrands). Outlook in 2H25E may still be challenging, but we tend to think theindustry turnaround is around the corner and Anta is in a decent position tobenefit from that. Maintain BUY and raise TP to HK$ 118.55. China ConsumerDiscretionaryWalter WOO(852) 3761 8776walterwoo@cmbi.com.hk Retailsales trend in Jul to MTD in Aug 2025 was quite mixed.Managementhighlighted that the retail sales growth has been rathersubdued during Jul to MTD in Aug 2025,andwebelieve that wasmoreabout the Anta brand (FY25E guidance has just been cut) thantheFILAbrand. But for other brands (e.g. Descente and Kolon), the retail salesgrowth was close to 50%, still very fast (vs 60%+ in 1H25) and ahead of theFY25E guidance (40%+).Based on our channel check, Anta brand’s onlineretail sales growth was still quite slow in Jul 2025 (around flattish) while thatfor FILA was at MSD to HSD. Stock Data FY25E guidance revised (cuttingAnta’s, keeping FILA’s but raisingother brands’).Management has revised the retail sales growth target foreach segment in FY25E, where Anta’s target was cut from HSD to MSD,FILA’s target was kept at MSD, and other brands’ target was raised to 40%+,from 30%+. Shareholding Structure The Anta brand reform may take longer.Webelieve there are a numberof reasons behind the guidance cut: 1) weaker-than-expected basketballindustry sales growth, 2) slower-than-expected ramp-up of the new storeformats (sales per store for the Anta Champion store was decent, that forArena stores was fair, but that for Anta super stores was somewhat belowtarget,hence the new store expansion has already slowed down), 3)weaker-than-expected sales growth during the 618 festival (management isnow making a more thorough and agile plan forDouble 11 festival in2H25E). Moreover, Anta’s overseas expansion (whether it is SoutheastAsia, ortheUS and Europe) is still in the investment phase and it may take3 to 5 years to yield meaningful positives.However, thanks to rigid controlof its opex (esp. the A&P and channel-related expenses), the OP marginshould still be between 20%and25% inFY25E,basedon our estimates. Source: FactSet RecentReports:Li Ning (2331 HK)-Still positive despiteall margin drags in 2H25E(25Aug25) Xtep (1368 HK)-FY25E guidanceunchanged after 1H25 beat(19Aug25) 361 Degrees (1361 HK)-Guidanceunchanged but we are concerned(15Aug25) Xtep(1368 HK)-2Q25 was weak butguidance remained intact(17Jul25) Anta Sports (2020 HK)-Anta brand’smiss offset by other brands’ beat(16Jul25) Li Ning (2331 HK)-2Q25 roughly inlineand transition in progress(15Jul25) But the FILA brand’s reform is more or less on track.FILA’s reform (alongside itschangeofCEO) since late last year has been constructive. For example: 1) the brandpositioning as a high-end athleisure brand was strengthened, 2) new product launcheswith better design, were well received (like the golf, tennis, functional and footwearseries),and 3) e-commerce sales growth remained faster than peers. Management isstill confident on its MSD retail sales growth and 25% to 30% OP margin target inFY25E. Other brands continued to be the bright spot andthisshould lastinto 2H25E.The sales growth momentum of Descente and Kolon is still overwhelming, mostlythanks to its high product quality and successful brand positioning among the high-endspenders.The more impressive is that the SSSG was still at 30%+ and as a result, theOP margin now exceeded the 30% mark in 1H25 (slightly above its target of 25% to30%).As the popularity persists, we would not be surprised to seesuchprofitability tosustain into 2H25E. Maintain BUY and raise TP to HK$ 118.55, based on 21x FY26E P/E (rolled overfrom 23xFY25E P/E).We have revised up FY25E/ 26E/ 27E net profit forecasts by2%/ 2%/ 2%, in order to factor in: 1) the faster sales growth and the higher OP marginfor the Descente and Kolon brand and 2) the Jack Wolfskin-related lossesof roughlyRMB 100mn toRMB200mn.The stock is trading at 18x FY26E P/E, still not toodemanding vsits5-year average of 25x. We also think Anta should deserve a valuationpremium over its peers, because of its more well-balanced portfolio (multi-brand andmulti-region). 1H25 results were fairly inline.In 1H25, Anta sales increased by 14% YoY to RMB38.5bn and net profit declined by 9% YoY to RMB 7.0bn, both inline with BBG est. andCMBI est..Other income (including government grants) was better than expected, butthat wasroughly offset by the higher-than-expected effective tax rate (mostly due tocash transfersto overseas as Anta has been expanding its overseas business, suchas the opening of Anta’s stores and acquisition of JackWo